UL-Monroe vs Miss. State Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 5 2026
The college football picks board features another lopsided non-conference tune-up, with Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby getting a chance to unleash his offense against a UL Monroe squad that has been gutted by the transfer portal.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Mississippi State -28.5 (-112)
- Total: Over 54.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Bulldogs 49, Warhawks 14
Odds and Line Movement
Mississippi State has held favorite status on the spread throughout the betting window, with the number holding steady at 28.5 across nearly every checkpoint provided. The total has dropped from as high as 56.5 earlier in the summer down to the current 54.5 mark. Below is the current market snapshot followed by the line movement tables pulled directly from the book data.
Current Odds
| Market | UL Monroe | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +28.5 (-108) | -28.5 (-112) |
| Total | 54.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | UL Monroe | Mississippi State | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 88%, 90% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 88%, 94% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 89%, 91% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 90%, 90% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 92%, 90% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 88%, 87% |
| 09/02 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 89%, 92% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 91%, 88% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 91%, 93% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 92%, 92% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 91%, 88% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 90%, 88% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 92%, 89% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 92%, 87% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 87%, 94% |
| 08/31 | 28½ -108 | -28½ -112 | MSST 93%, 93% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02 | 54½o -110 | 54½u -110 | O89%, O67% |
| 08/31 | 54½o -114 | 54½u -106 | O94%, O67% |
| 08/31 | 54½o -115 | 54½u -105 | O91%, O67% |
| 08/31 | 55½o -108 | 55½u -112 | O94%, O67% |
| 08/26 | 55½o -110 | 55½u -110 | O88%, O91% |
| 08/12 | 55½o -115 | 55½u -105 | O100%, O100% |
| 06/30 | 56½o -110 | 56½u -110 | - |
| 06/03 | 53½o -112 | 53½u -108 | - |
UL Monroe vs Mississippi State: Key Matchups and Game Preview
We recognize that we're in the middle of a string of recommending a bunch of big favorites in a row, but this is probably a good spot to send a PSA about how fast this sport is changing. Two years ago, UL Monroe went 5-7 with a returning quarterback and 64-percent of its returning production. For a program like Monroe, that's the blueprint to getting out of the Sun Belt basement. So why couldn't they do it?
UL Monroe's Roster Exodus
The top three running backs from that team, Ahmad Hardy (Missouri), James Jones (New Mexico State) and Taven Curry (Akron), are all gone. Tight end Hunter Herring is at Auburn. Leading receiver Jake Godfrey is at Nicholls at the FCS level. Leading tackler Wydett Williams Jr. left for Ole Miss and now plays for the Arizona Cardinals. Anyone with a pulse at this level gets quickly identified by a larger school and the check gets signed shortly thereafter.
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UL Monroe's Depleted Roster
Monroe is only expected to return five starters from last year's squad with a new offensive coordinator in the mix. 247Sports ranks Monroe's class of incoming talent as the worst in the Sun Belt. The WarHawks were forced to take some licks during the non-conference slate last season, losing 73-0 against Alabama then 42-7 at Northwestern. Monroe lost its last eight games to close the season.
Mississippi State's Offensive Firepower
Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby hasn't had many opportunities to spread his wings in Starkville, but he's taken advantage of the few chances that he did receive. Known as a creative offensive mind, Lebby's Bulldogs have scored 56 against Eastern Kentucky, 45 against UMass and 63 against Alcorn State over the last two seasons. Mississippi State has gone 5-2 against the spread as a favorite during that time.
Mississippi State's Quarterback Showcase
Returning quarterback Kamario Taylor gets lost in the shuffle of the SEC, but he's one of the best athletes in the country and games like this against inferior opponents give him a showcase to shine.
ULM and MSST Betting Trends
The market data shows the public has overwhelmingly backed Mississippi State on the spread throughout the entire betting window, with support consistently in the high 80s to low 90s in percentage terms on both bets and money across nearly every checkpoint available. On the total, the Over has drawn strong public backing as well, with support ranging from the high 80s all the way to a perfect 100% at one checkpoint in August.
ULM and MSST Injuries and Things to Know
UL Monroe enters this matchup with only five expected returning starters after losing key contributors like Ahmad Hardy, James Jones, Taven Curry, Hunter Herring, Jake Godfrey and Wydett Williams Jr. to the transfer portal or graduation. Mississippi State returns quarterback Kamario Taylor, who gives Lebby's offense a proven athletic playmaker heading into this matchup.
ULM vs MSST Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Mississippi State -28.5 (-112)
- Total Pick: Over 54.5 (-110)
With Monroe's roster gutted by the transfer portal and Lebby's history of running up the score against inferior competition, Mississippi State's offense should have little trouble covering a large number. Kamario Taylor's athleticism combined with a UL Monroe defense that lost 73-0 to Alabama a season ago also supports leaning toward the Over.
Warhawks vs Bulldogs Final Score Prediction
With Mississippi State's proven scoring track record against overmatched opponents and UL Monroe's depleted roster, the projection favors a lopsided result that clears the total.
- Projected Final Score: Bulldogs 49, Warhawks 14
How to Wager On UL Monroe vs Mississippi State
Bettors looking to build out this card have more than one way to approach the UL Monroe-Mississippi State matchup. Beyond the straight side and total options, there are several tools worth exploring to sharpen your process before placing a wager on this game.
- Check out our AI picks for model-driven angles on this game and others across the college football slate.
- See how the numbers stack up with our Dimers review for an additional projection source.
- Compare approaches with our Oddible review before locking in your bet on UL Monroe or Mississippi State.
Whether you're backing Mississippi State on the spread, taking the Over, or building a same-game parlay around this lopsided matchup, lining up multiple resources before betting UL Monroe vs Mississippi State can help sharpen the decision.
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