Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Monday May 4 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Monday May 4 2026
The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs meet at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Monday, May 4, 2026, at 7:40 PM ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. This NL matchup features a Reds team trying to stabilize on the road against a Cubs team that has been strong at home, and readers can also check out free MLB picks.
Reds vs Cubs Starting Pitchers
Cincinnati lists no probable starter, which means that the Reds could be relying on a bullpen day to start the week. Chicago is expected to start Edward Cabrera, who enters with a 3-0 record, a 3.06 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, 35.1 innings pitched, 30 hits allowed, 29 strikeouts, 12 walks, and three home runs allowed.
Cincinnati Looks to Regroup Away From Home
The Reds enter this matchup with a 20-13 overall record and a 10-5 mark on the road. Cincinnati has had a mixed recent stretch, recently losing to Pittsburgh twice by scores of 17-7 and 9-1, while also recently winning over Colorado by scores of 6-4 and 7-2. The Reds also recently lost to Colorado 13-2, giving them two wins and three losses across the last five games provided.
Cincinnati is batting .220 as a team with 141 runs, 240 hits, 44 home runs, a .307 on-base percentage, and a .388 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, the Reds have a 4.59 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, 157 walks, 261 strikeouts, and a .257 opponent batting average. Cincinnati also has an 8-8 day record in the provided team stats.
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The clear strength for Cincinnati in the supplied numbers is power, as the Reds have 44 home runs, which is slightly ahead of Chicago’s 43. The concern is the overall offensive consistency, with Cincinnati carrying the lower batting average, fewer hits, and fewer runs compared to the Cubs. The pitching profile also creates concern, with the Reds showing the higher ERA and WHIP in this matchup.
Chicago Brings Home-Field Momentum Into Wrigley
The Cubs come into Monday with a 21-12 overall record and a 13-5 home record. Chicago has been sharp in its recent results, recently winning over Arizona by scores of 2-0 and 6-5, while also recently winning over San Diego by scores of 5-4 and 8-3. The Cubs recently lost to San Diego 9-7, but they still enter with four wins in the last five games provided.
Chicago is batting .258 with 177 runs, 292 hits, 43 home runs, a .350 on-base percentage, and a .425 slugging percentage. The Cubs’ pitching staff has produced a 3.89 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, 97 walks, 270 strikeouts, and a .228 opponent batting average. Chicago also has an 11-8 day record in the provided stats.
The biggest edge for Chicago is balance. The Cubs have the stronger batting average, more runs, more hits, the better on-base percentage, and the better slugging percentage. They also have the lower ERA, lower WHIP, fewer walks allowed, more strikeouts, and lower opponent batting average. That gives Chicago a statistical advantage on both sides entering this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago is the pick because the provided numbers point clearly toward the Cubs. Chicago has the better overall record, the stronger home record, and the better recent form with four wins in the last five games listed. The Cubs also hold advantages in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP, walks allowed, strikeouts, and opponent batting average. Cincinnati does have a slight edge in home runs, but Chicago’s broader statistical profile is stronger.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
- Pick: Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.
I would lean Over 8.5 if that number is available. Cincinnati’s recent losses included games where the opponent scored 17, 9, and 13 runs, while Chicago has scored five or more runs in four of its last five games provided. The Cubs have also produced 177 runs with a .350 on-base percentage and .425 slugging percentage, while the Reds have 44 home runs. With Cincinnati’s 4.59 ERA and 1.52 WHIP also included in the matchup, I see enough provided data to lean toward runs.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – Cincinnati Reds 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.
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