Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction for Monday May 18 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/18/2026, 12:35 AM ET

The Houston Astros travel to face the Minnesota Twins on Monday, May 18, 2026, at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Houston enters the matchup at -105 on the moneyline, while Minnesota is listed at -114. The total is set at 9.5 runs, with the Astros -1.5 on the run line at +139 and the Twins +1.5 at -168. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Enter With Different Early Results

Houston is expected to start Tatsuya Imai, who enters with a 1-1 record, 9.24 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 12.2 innings pitched, 12 hits allowed, 16 strikeouts, 14 walks, and two home runs allowed. Minnesota counters with Kendry Rojas, who is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 7.1 innings pitched, eight hits allowed, eight strikeouts, eight walks, and no home runs allowed. Imai has generated strikeouts but has also struggled with control and run prevention, while Rojas has limited damage despite allowing frequent baserunners in a smaller sample.

Astros Searching for Consistency on the Road

Houston enters Monday night with a 19-29 overall record and a 7-15 road mark. The Astros recently lost to Texas 8-0 after recently won over Texas 4-1 and 2-0. Houston also recently lost to Seattle 8-3 before recently won over Seattle 4-3 in 10 innings. The Astros have alternated wins and losses throughout much of their recent stretch.

Houston is batting .252 with 212 runs, 400 hits, 59 home runs, a .327 on-base percentage, and a .419 slugging percentage. On the mound, the Astros carry a 5.37 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP, 240 walks, 406 strikeouts, and a .257 opponent batting average.

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Houston’s biggest strength remains offensive production. The Astros hold the edge in batting average, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage compared to Minnesota. The concern is pitching consistency, as Houston enters with the higher ERA, WHIP, walks allowed, and opponent batting average.

Twins Hoping to Build Momentum at Home

Minnesota enters this game with a 21-26 overall record and a 13-13 home record. The Twins recently won over Milwaukee 5-4 after recently lost to Milwaukee 2-1 and 3-2. Minnesota also recently won over Miami 9-1 before recently lost to Miami 9-5. The recent results show a team capable of scoring in bursts while still struggling to string together consistent winning stretches.

The Twins are batting .236 with 214 runs, 362 hits, 50 home runs, a .322 on-base percentage, and a .383 slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff owns a 4.36 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP, 166 walks, 349 strikeouts, and a .245 opponent batting average.

Minnesota’s biggest strength entering this matchup is overall pitching control compared to Houston. The Twins have allowed fewer walks, carry the lower ERA and WHIP, and have done a better job limiting opposing hitters. That advantage becomes important against a Houston lineup that has produced strong offensive numbers overall.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Pick

Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline

Minnesota gets the edge because of the stronger overall pitching profile and the more reliable starting pitching matchup entering Monday night. Houston has produced better offensive numbers overall, but the Astros continue struggling on the mound with a 5.37 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The Twins have been more stable defensively and should benefit from facing a Houston starter carrying a 9.24 ERA and 14 walks in only 12.2 innings. With Minnesota also playing at home, the Twins hold slight value in a close matchup.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Total Pick

Pick: Over 9.5

I lean toward the over because Houston’s offense continues producing strong numbers despite the team’s overall record. The Astros have already hit 59 home runs and own a .419 slugging percentage. At the same time, Houston’s pitching staff has struggled throughout the season with a 5.37 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Minnesota has also shown the ability to score, including a recent nine-run game against Miami. With both teams capable of offensive production and Houston’s pitching remaining inconsistent, this total feels reachable.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins 6 – Houston Astros 5