Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Monday May 18 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 05/18/2026, 12:40 AM ET

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to face the Chicago Cubs on Monday, May 18, 2026, at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup as a -167 favorite on the moneyline, while Milwaukee is listed at +138. The total is set at 10.5 runs, with the Brewers +1.5 on the run line at -131 and the Cubs -1.5 at +109. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Strong Pitching Matchup Opens NL Central Series

Milwaukee is expected to start Brandon Sproat, who enters with a 1-2 record, 5.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 36.0 innings pitched, 35 hits allowed, 36 strikeouts, 20 walks, and eight home runs allowed. Chicago counters with Shota Imanaga, who is 4-3 with a 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 54.1 innings pitched, 36 hits allowed, 59 strikeouts, 13 walks, and five home runs allowed. Imanaga enters with the stronger numbers across nearly every category, while Sproat has struggled more with run prevention and allowing home runs.

Brewers Bringing Strong Form Into Wrigley

Milwaukee enters Monday night with a 26-18 overall record and an 11-9 road mark. The Brewers recently lost to Minnesota 5-4 after recently won over the Twins 2-1 and 3-2. Milwaukee also recently won over San Diego 7-1 before recently lost to the Padres 3-1. The Brewers have won three of their last five games entering this divisional matchup.

The Brewers are batting .243 with 214 runs, 350 hits, 28 home runs, a .333 on-base percentage, and a .356 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff owns a 3.26 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP, 149 walks, 418 strikeouts, and a .225 opponent batting average.

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Milwaukee’s biggest strength is pitching consistency. The Brewers carry the lower ERA, lower opponent batting average, and higher strikeout total entering this matchup. Their offense has not shown the same power production as Chicago, but the pitching staff has consistently kept games competitive.

Cubs Continue Strong Play at Home

Chicago enters this matchup with a 29-18 overall record and an impressive 18-5 home record. The Cubs recently lost to the White Sox 9-8 in 10 innings and also recently lost to the White Sox 8-3. Before those games, Chicago recently won over the White Sox 10-5 and recently won over Atlanta 2-0 after recently lost to Atlanta 4-1. Despite the recent losses, the Cubs continue entering games with one of the best home records in the league.

The Cubs are batting .247 with 233 runs, 385 hits, 55 home runs, a .341 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage. On the mound, Chicago owns a 3.90 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, 138 walks, 373 strikeouts, and a .230 opponent batting average.

Chicago’s biggest strength is offensive production combined with home success. The Cubs hold clear advantages in runs scored, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage entering this matchup. Wrigley Field has also been a strong environment for Chicago throughout the season with an 18-5 home record.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Pick

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago enters this game with the stronger offensive profile and one of the best home records in baseball. The Cubs have produced 55 home runs and 233 runs while maintaining strong on-base numbers throughout the season. The starting pitching matchup also favors Chicago because of Imanaga’s 2.32 ERA and 0.90 WHIP compared to Sproat’s 5.75 ERA and eight home runs allowed. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been solid overall, but Chicago’s balance at home gives the Cubs the edge.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick

Pick: Under 10.5

I lean toward the under because Milwaukee’s pitching staff continues producing strong overall numbers with a 3.26 ERA and .225 opponent batting average. Chicago also enters with a quality starting pitching matchup, and both teams have recently played several games with lower totals, including Milwaukee’s 2-1 and 3-2 wins over Minnesota. Even though Chicago has strong power numbers, this total feels slightly too high considering the pitching matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 4