Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Two games, two Milwaukee victories, and the Brewers are halfway to their first World Series championship. But here's what makes this series interesting. Milwaukee hasn't exactly been beating Tampa Bay into submission. The Brewers won Game 1 by a 3-2 score and Game 2 by a 5-4 margin. That's two one-run games. Now the series moves to Florida, where the Rays have been excellent all season. If Tampa Bay is going to make this a competitive World Series, Monday is the night to do it.
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on Monday, October 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on FOX. Tampa Bay is a slight moneyline favorite around -118 to -120, with Milwaukee around even money. The total is seven runs. The Rays trail the best-of-seven World Series 2-0 after dropping both games in Milwaukee. Tropicana Field is an enclosed stadium, so outside weather won't affect play.
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee is expected to start left-hander Robert Gasser, who finished the regular season with a 5-5 record and a 3.87 ERA. In his last postseason outing, Gasser threw five scoreless innings against the Dodgers on October 14, allowing no earned runs while striking out three. He's been particularly effective with his breaking pitches, and his ability to generate weak contact should help against a Tampa Bay lineup that hasn't been particularly efficient in the first two games. Gasser has had plenty of rest, which is encouraging, but he'll be facing a Rays team that's desperate to avoid falling behind 3-0.
Tampa Bay counters with right-hander Freddy Peralta, who went 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA during the regular season. Those numbers aren't spectacular, but Peralta has been much better in October. He's 2-0 with a 1.08 postseason ERA and allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last start against Cleveland on October 19. Peralta has also been effective at limiting hard contact, and the extra rest should help him work deeper into Monday's game. The former Milwaukee pitcher knows this organization well, and he'll have a chance to make a statement against his old club.
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The pitching matchup favors Tampa Bay slightly. Peralta has been more consistent during the postseason, while Gasser has been effective but hasn't been asked to work particularly deep into games. Both teams have strong bullpens, and Sunday's off day gives the managers more flexibility. If Peralta can give Tampa Bay six quality innings, the Rays should have an excellent chance to win. But Milwaukee has been outstanding at finding ways to score late, and that's what makes this matchup dangerous for anyone backing Tampa Bay.
Milwaukee Brewers Have Been Finding Ways to Win
Milwaukee finished the regular season 103-59, the best record in baseball, including a 48-33 road mark. The Brewers have been even better in October, going 9-1 through their first ten postseason games. They beat San Diego in four games, swept Los Angeles in the NLCS, and now lead Tampa Bay 2-0. Saturday's 5-4 victory was another example of Milwaukee's ability to capitalize on mistakes and deliver in important moments. The Brewers don't have to dominate every inning to win. They just have to make fewer mistakes than their opponents.
Milwaukee's offense has been more dangerous in the postseason than its regular-season home run totals suggested. The Brewers hit only 154 home runs during the regular season, but they entered the World Series with ten in seven postseason games. That's a substantial improvement. They've also been excellent at putting the ball in play and creating pressure on opposing defenses. Tampa Bay has made some uncharacteristic mistakes in the first two games, and Milwaukee has taken advantage. The Brewers need to keep that pressure on Monday, particularly against a pitcher who has been excellent in October.
The bullpen has been one of Milwaukee's biggest strengths. The Brewers have been able to shorten games when they get a lead, and their relievers have been dependable in high-pressure situations. Saturday's victory was another example, with the bullpen protecting a one-run advantage late. Milwaukee also has the confidence that comes from winning nine of ten postseason games. The concern is playing away from home against a desperate opponent. Tampa Bay has been excellent at Tropicana Field, and the Rays should be more comfortable offensively in their own ballpark.
Tampa Bay Rays Need to Get Back Into the Series
Tampa Bay finished the regular season 98-64, including an excellent 55-26 home record. The Rays have been through difficult postseason situations before, and they showed that in the ALCS when they recovered from a 2-1 deficit against Cleveland to win the series in six games. But this is a different challenge. Falling behind Milwaukee 3-0 would put Tampa Bay in a nearly impossible position. The Rays need to win Monday, and they have the starting pitching and home-field advantage to do it.
The offense hasn't been completely ineffective against Milwaukee, but Tampa Bay has struggled to capitalize on opportunities. The Rays scored two runs in Game 1 and four in Game 2, and they've been hurt by baserunning mistakes and defensive errors. Those are the kinds of mistakes that can decide a World Series when the teams are evenly matched. Tampa Bay needs to be more patient at the plate and avoid giving Milwaukee extra outs. The Rays have enough offensive ability to score against Gasser, particularly if they can get into favorable counts and force him out of the game early.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been one of the better teams in baseball, but the first two games haven't reflected that. The Rays have made uncharacteristic mistakes, and Milwaukee has been excellent at taking advantage. Tampa Bay needs a cleaner performance Monday, particularly with Peralta on the mound. The Rays also need their bullpen to protect any lead they manage to build. The good news is that Sunday's off day should leave the relievers rested. If Tampa Bay can play its usual brand of baseball, this series should become much more competitive.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline -120 or Better
I'll take Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -120 or better. Milwaukee has been outstanding, and betting against a team that's won nine of ten postseason games isn't particularly comfortable. But the Rays are heading home, where they went 55-26 during the regular season, and they have the better starting pitching matchup. Tampa Bay's starter has been excellent in October, while Milwaukee's starter hasn't been tested as deeply. The concern is the Brewers' ability to capitalize on mistakes and win close games. They've already done it twice in this series. But I think Tampa Bay plays a cleaner game at home and gets back into the World Series.
Under 7 Runs
I'm taking Under 7. Both starting pitchers have been effective in the postseason, and both bullpens should be rested after Sunday's off day. Milwaukee has scored three and five runs in the first two games, while Tampa Bay has managed two and four. The Rays need a cleaner defensive performance, and I expect them to be more disciplined after the mistakes that cost them in Milwaukee. The danger is an early pitching change or a couple of home runs turning this into another 5-4 game. But I think the starting pitching keeps things controlled. Something around 3-2 Tampa Bay makes sense.
Final Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline -120 or better and Under 7 Runs
Preview completed October 26, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines, lineups, and other game information may change before first pitch.
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