New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions for Thursday, September 25, 2025
The New York Mets (81-76, 2nd in NL East) and Chicago Cubs (88-69, 2nd in NL Central) conclude their critical three-game series at Wrigley Field, with the Mets chasing a wild-card spot and the Cubs already playoff-bound. All eyes are on Francisco Lindor for the Mets and Michael Busch for the Cubs, as their performances could swing this high-stakes finale. Our free MLB picks focus on how these stars shape the game and offer betting value.
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Game Details
- Date: September 25, 2025
- Time: 7:40 PM EDT
- Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
- Broadcast Info: MLB Network (national), SNY (Mets broadcast), Marquee Sports Network (Cubs broadcast)
- Weather: 62°F, partly cloudy, 5-10 mph winds blowing in from left field—slightly favoring pitchers.
Spotlight Player(s)
- New York Mets: Francisco Lindor (SS): Lindor (.274 AVG, 29 HR, 91 RBI) has been a catalyst, hitting .350 with 3 HR over his last 10 games. Against the Cubs this season, he’s 5-for-12 with a homer and 3 RBI, including a leadoff homer on 9/23. His speed (28 SB) and power (.526 SLG) make him a threat against left-handed pitching like Matthew Boyd.
- Chicago Cubs: Michael Busch (1B): Busch (.256 AVG, 30 HR, 82 RBI) leads the Cubs with a .491 SLG and has been hot, going 9-for-34 with 2 HR in his last 10 games. Against the Mets in 2025, he’s 4-for-11 with a homer, thriving against right-handers like Jonah Tong. His ability to drive in runs at home (46 RBI) is key.
- Impact: Lindor’s all-around game gives the Mets versatility, while Busch’s power at Wrigley could exploit New York’s pitching weaknesses.
Supporting Cast & Depth
- Mets: Pete Alonso (37 HR, 122 RBI) and Brandon Nimmo (.274 AVG) bolster the lineup, with Nimmo’s 3-run homer on 9/23 showing their comeback potential. The bullpen (4.10 ERA) is a weak link, with Edwin Díaz (27 saves, 2.80 ERA) as the lone reliable arm. Injuries to Reed Garrett (elbow) and others strain relief options.
- Cubs: Ian Happ (.246 AVG, 28 HR) and Nico Hoerner (.350 OBP) provide depth, with Happ’s 8 RBI in his last 10 games adding punch. The Cubs’ bullpen (3.64 ERA, 41 saves) is deeper, though injuries to Justin Steele (elbow) and Kyle Tucker (calf) limit their roster flexibility.
- Edge: Cubs’ bullpen and home-field consistency outshine the Mets’ shaky relief corps, but New York’s power hitters keep them competitive.
Betting Line Breakdown
- Moneyline: Mets +130 (43%), Cubs -155 (61%)
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-140, ~58%), Cubs -1.5 (+120, ~45%)
- Total: Over 8.0 (-110, ~52%), Under 8.0 (-110, ~52%)
- Player Influence: Lindor’s hot bat could push the Mets to cover or win outright, while Busch’s power at Wrigley supports the over if he connects early. The Cubs’ edge with Boyd and their bullpen makes them favorites, but Lindor’s ability to spark rallies keeps the game close.
Picks For Mets vs Cubs
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110): Lindor’s .350 AVG against the Cubs this season and .400 clip vs. lefties like Boyd make this a strong prop. His leadoff role ensures multiple plate appearances, and his recent form (14-for-40 with 3 HR) suggests he’ll contribute significantly.
- Cubs Moneyline (-155): The Cubs’ home strength (46-30), Boyd’s reliability (3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and superior bullpen (3.64 ERA vs. Mets’ 4.10) give them the edge. The Mets’ 32-44 road record and Tong’s 5.94 ERA tilt this toward Chicago, especially after losing 3 of 4 games in this series.
- Over 8.0 Total Runs (-110): Wrigley’s hitter-friendly conditions, the Mets’ power (215 HR, 2nd in NL), and Tong’s high ERA (5.94) suggest runs. Busch’s slugging (.491) and the Cubs’ 209 HR (7th in MLB) exploit New York’s pitching, while the Mets’ bats (Lindor, Alonso) keep it competitive.
