New York Yankees vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday, May 17, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 05/17/2026, 12:35 AM ET

The Subway Series wraps up Sunday morning at Citi Field with the Yankees looking to keep pressure on Tampa Bay in the AL East while the Mets try to stop another slide in the NL East. New York already grabbed Game 1 with a 5-2 win on Friday, and the gap between these clubs has been obvious through the first six weeks of the season. For bettors searching for free MLB picks, this matchup leans heavily toward the more complete roster and the stronger offensive profile. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York. The weather should be warm with temperatures around 83 degrees, which could help carry the ball in a park that usually plays neutral during day games. The Yankees enter at 28-17 while the Mets sit at 18-26 and are already 12.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East.

Yankees Preview

The Yankees continue to win because the lineup keeps producing power in big spots. Aaron Judge leads the club with 16 home runs and 30 RBI, while Ben Rice has been one of the better hitters in baseball with a .314 average and .686 slugging percentage. New York owns major edges in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage over the Mets. The Yankees have also posted a strong 3.19 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP, which gives them balance on both sides of the ball, even with Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton still dealing with injuries.

Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the Yankees, and his numbers back up the current form. Peralta enters with a 3-3 record, 3.10 ERA, and 50 strikeouts across 49.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed only five home runs all season and has consistently limited hard contact when ahead in the count. Against a Mets lineup batting just .225 with a weak .347 slugging percentage, Peralta should be in a favorable position to work deep into the game.

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Mets Preview

The Mets have struggled to generate offense outside of occasional power from Mark Vientos and Juan Soto. Brett Baty is batting only .230, and the lineup overall owns just 37 home runs compared to the Yankees’ 67. Ryan Weathers has been solid with a 3.00 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 45 innings, but this is a much tougher matchup against one of the best power lineups in baseball. The Mets' bullpen has also been less reliable late in games, especially with A.J. Minter unavailable.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction

The pick here is the Yankees moneyline and the Yankees team total over. The Pinstripes have the better offense, a more reliable bullpen, and a stronger overall pitching staff entering this matchup. Peralta’s ability to miss bats against an inconsistent Mets lineup is another major edge.

Final score prediction: Yankees 6, Mets 3.