Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Saturday, March 28, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 03/28/2026, 12:55 AM ET

The Pirates and Mets meet at Citi Field after New York took the season opener 11-7. Pittsburgh sits at 0-1 and already showed both power and bullpen issues, while the Mets improved to 1-0 with a strong offensive showing. Bettors looking for early-season edges can check out free MLB picks as this matchup features two starters with similar profiles but very different team momentum. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

First pitch is set for 4:10 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York. The game will be available on MLB.TV. Weather conditions are expected to be cool with temperatures around the mid-40s.

Pirates Struggles Continue

Pittsburgh has dropped four of its last five games dating back to spring training, including the 11-7 loss in this series opener. The Pirates posted 7 runs and 10 hits Thursday, but the pitching staff allowed 11 runs with a 12.38 team ERA and 2.50 WHIP. That kind of early bullpen instability is hard to ignore.

Can Mets Put Together 2 Wins?

New York snapped a short losing streak with the win over Pittsburgh. The Mets offense looked sharp, hitting .324 as a team with an impressive .467 OBP in the opener. New York also avoided free passes, issuing zero walks while striking out 10 batters, showing cleaner execution on both sides.

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Mets and Pirates Pitching Could Be Interesting

Mitch Keller takes the ball for Pittsburgh after a 2025 season where he went 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Keller has solid strikeout numbers with 150 Ks, but run support and consistency have been issues. His career WHIP and workload suggest he can keep games competitive, but he needs cleaner innings than what Pittsburgh showed in Game 1.

David Peterson gets the start for New York after going 9-6 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP last season. Peterson also recorded 150 strikeouts but allowed more traffic on the bases. The left-hander benefits from facing a Pirates lineup that can be inconsistent, though Pittsburgh did show power with 3 home runs in the opener.

Mets vs Pirates Pick

No official lines are listed here, but the Mets are slight favorites based on early projections and their Game 1 performance. The matchup predictor leans toward New York at 52.7 percent compared to 47.3 percent for Pittsburgh. Expect the total to draw attention after both teams combined for 18 runs.

The Mets moneyline is the top play given the current offensive form and better pitching execution. The over is also worth a look after both teams showed power and shaky bullpen depth in the opener. A smaller lean goes to the Mets team total over based on a .324 average and .467 OBP start.

Final score prediction: Mets 6, Pirates 4.