San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 16, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 09/16/2025, 12:25 AM ET

The San Diego Padres visit Citi Field on Tuesday to play the New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS. San Diego enters at 82–68 (35–40 away) while New York is 77–73 (46–29 home). The Padres defeated the Rockies 9-6 on Sunday, while New York went into extra innings to beat Texas 5-2. San Diego trails LA in the National League West by 2.5 games and currently holds the second of three NL wild card spots. New York has the third NL wild card but just 1.5 games ahead of fourth place. Make your most informed bet with our free MLB Picks.

San Diego Padres Preview

San Diego has taken three of its last five, including back-to-back wins over Colorado with nine and eleven runs scored. Luis Arraez leads the team with 165 hits and a .286 average, while Manny Machado provides plenty of power with 25 home runs and 88 RBI. Fernando Tatis Jr. has chipped in with 22 long balls and continues to draw walks, boosting his on-base percentage to .367.

Michael King gets the start and brings a 4–2 record with a 2.87 ERA and 67 strikeouts in just 62.2 innings. His ability to limit baserunners (1.07 WHIP) gives San Diego a strong chance to control innings. Backed by a staff ERA of 3.64, the Padres have been one of the league’s steadier pitching staffs.

New York Mets Preview

The Mets snapped a four-game skid on Sunday with a 5–2 win over Texas, on a walk-off three-run homer by Pete Alonso, but recent struggles have slowed their playoff push. Juan Soto leads the lineup with 40 homers, 98 RBI, and a .396 on-base percentage, while Pete Alonso adds 34 homers and 117 RBI. Francisco Lindor has scored 103 runs and sits at 26 homers, giving New York one of the most powerful “top threes” in baseball.

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Clay Holmes takes the mound with an 11–8 record, 3.75 ERA, and 151 innings pitched. He has allowed only 12 home runs this season, but has walked 62 hitters, which can lead to trouble against disciplined lineups. The Mets have a 4.01 team ERA and are 28–29 in day games, though their 46–29 home record is much better.

San Diego vs New York Prediction

This matchup leans toward San Diego thanks to King’s command and the Padres’ pitching advantage. While the Mets bring more power, a lack of consistency and Holmes’ walk issues open the door for the Padres’ offense to create scoring chances. With San Diego’s recent momentum and bullpen support, the Padres are the side to take. Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres win 5-2.