St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday August 18 2026
Tuesday's National League showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds sets up as one of the more intriguing pitching matchups on the MLB slate, with right-hander Kyle Leahy taking the ball for St. Louis against Cincinnati left-hander Andrew Abbott. For more MLB picks and predictions across the full slate, check out our MLB picks hub before locking in your bets. Below we break down the odds, line movement, matchup trends, and our final picks for Cardinals vs Reds.
TL;DR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Cardinals -116
- Total Pick: Under 8.5
- Projected Final Score: Cardinals 5, Reds 3
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| St. Louis Moneyline | Cincinnati Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| -116 | +108 | O 8.5 (-117) / U 8.5 (-103) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | St. Louis | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/17 | 03:56:21PM | -115 | -105 |
| 08/17 | 04:27:39PM | -115 | -105 |
| 08/17 | 06:44:58PM | -121 | +101 |
| 08/17 | 06:44:58PM | -121 | +101 |
| 08/17 | 10:17:27PM | -118 | -102 |
| 08/17 | 10:19:49PM | -124 | +103 |
| 08/17 | 11:12:16PM | -123 | +102 |
| 08/17 | 11:24:32PM | -123 | +102 |
| 08/17 | 11:24:32PM | -123 | +102 |
| 08/17 | 11:24:32PM | -116 | +108 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/17 | 03:56:21PM | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+100) |
| 08/17 | 04:27:39PM | 9 (+100) | 9 (-120) |
| 08/17 | 06:44:58PM | 9 (+100) | 9 (-121) |
| 08/17 | 10:19:49PM | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+101) |
| 08/17 | 11:12:16PM | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+100) |
| 08/17 | 11:24:32PM | 8.5 (-117) | 8.5 (-103) |
Cardinals vs Reds Key Matchups and Game Preview
Cardinals Offense Overview
St. Louis brings a .240 team average and a .317 on-base percentage into Tuesday's game, both marks better than what Cincinnati has produced this season. Alec Burleson has been a driving force in the middle of the order, hitting .289 with a .355 OBP and .493 slugging percentage while driving in 92 runs. Jordan Walker has also provided pop, batting .289 with 24 home runs and 88 RBI.
Reds Pitching Preview
Andrew Abbott takes the mound for Cincinnati at 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 133.0 innings. He has allowed 125 hits with 102 strikeouts and 64 walks, a control profile that leaves little margin against a St. Louis lineup that gets on base at a solid clip.
St. Louis Bullpen Watch
Kyle Leahy enters with a 9-4 record, 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 117.1 innings, allowing 122 hits with 105 strikeouts and 35 walks. That command edge over Abbott is significant, and it puts less pressure on the St. Louis bullpen to cover innings behind him.
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Cincinnati Injury Concerns
Cincinnati's injury list is notably deeper heading into this game, with relievers Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft out, along with starter Brandon Williamson, first baseman Spencer Steer, and center fielder Blake Dunn. Those absences matter even more coming off Monday's doubleheader, when bullpen depth becomes a bigger factor if Abbott cannot work deep into the game.
Cardinals Series Recap
This five-game set is tied 1-1 after Monday's doubleheader split, with St. Louis taking the opener 2-1 before Cincinnati answered with a 6-5 win in the nightcap. St. Louis has otherwise been the more consistent club, going 3-2 over its last five games compared to Cincinnati's 2-3 mark.
Reds Home Splits
Despite playing at home, Cincinnati carries the weaker overall record at 60-65 compared to St. Louis at 64-62. The Reds do have the superior power numbers with 163 team home runs compared to 130 for St. Louis, led by Sal Stewart's 26 homers and 91 RBI and Elly De La Cruz, who is batting .261 with a .344 OBP and .475 slugging percentage.
STL Vs CIN Statistical Snapshot
St. Louis holds the edge in team average (.240 to .227) and OBP (.317 to .306), while Cincinnati holds the power advantage in home runs. St. Louis is missing Ramon Urias and reliever Max Rajcic, a shorter list than Cincinnati's injury report.
Cardinals Lineup Threats
Beyond Burleson and Walker, St. Louis has shown it can manufacture runs consistently given its OBP advantage, which plays into a lower-scoring environment against a Cincinnati pitching staff already dealing with multiple absences.
Reds Lineup Threats
Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz remain the two names Leahy has to be most careful with, as both carry legitimate power numbers that can change a game with one swing if he misses his spots.
St. Louis Path to Victory
Leahy's superior run prevention and command, paired with Cincinnati's weaker overall batting numbers and compromised pitching depth, gives St. Louis a clear path to creating separation in this game.
Betting Trends: STL vs CIN
Public betting activity has consistently sided with St. Louis across the day, with money and bet percentages ranging from 59 percent to as high as 93 percent on the Cardinals at various points, including one line showing STL at 90 percent of bets and 93 percent of money. That steady public backing lines up with the run line movement, which tightened from -115 down to as low as -124 before settling back in at -116 by late evening, a sign of two-way action but with St. Louis remaining the more heavily bet side throughout the day.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: STL vs CIN
- St. Louis: Ramon Urias and reliever Max Rajcic are out.
- Cincinnati: Relievers Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft, starter Brandon Williamson, first baseman Spencer Steer, and center fielder Blake Dunn are all out.
- Cincinnati's deeper injury list adds bullpen risk after Monday's doubleheader, particularly if Abbott cannot pitch deep into the game.
- The season series is tied 1-1 following a split doubleheader on Monday.
Cardinals vs Reds Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Cardinals moneyline at -116
- Total Pick: Under 8.5
Leahy's command advantage over Abbott, combined with Cincinnati's shorter overall offensive numbers and thinner pitching depth, supports both St. Louis on the moneyline and the under cashing in this matchup.
Final Score Prediction
- St. Louis Cardinals: 5 runs
- Cincinnati Reds: 3 runs
This projection reflects Leahy's edge in run prevention, St. Louis's better team average and OBP, and Cincinnati's compromised pitching staff heading into Tuesday's game.
How to Wager On Cardinals vs Reds
Bettors looking to get down on Cardinals vs Reds have a few options to consider before first pitch, from the moneyline and run line to the total. Given the tight number on St. Louis and the movement seen throughout the day on the total, shopping for the best line before the game is key. For bettors who want additional tools and analysis before making a final decision, our AI picks page breaks down model-driven projections, while our Dimers review and Oddible review both offer additional ways to cross-check today's number on St. Louis and Cincinnati before wagering.
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