Top MLB Home Run Prop Bets for September 16, 2025

By: Devin Erickson-Sheehy Published 09/16/2025, 10:24 AM ET

If you’re looking for home run prop bets on tonight’s slate, Tuesday brings plenty of intriguing opportunities.

We’ve identified three MLB picks that combine favorable matchups, advanced power metrics, and actionable value in the MLB prop bets market. Whether you’re chasing plus-money odds or leaning on projection models, these are the MLB HR props to circle.

Tonight’s Best Home Run Props

Juan Soto to hit a HR (+420)
Trevor Story to hit a HR (+450)

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Giancarlo Stanton to hit a HR (+240)

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Juan Soto remains one of baseball’s most feared hitters thanks to his unique combination of plate discipline and power. He enters tonight’s matchup against the Padres in strong form, with four home runs across his last 12 games. Citi Field has been playing hitter-friendly during late summer, with fly balls carrying further than usual, giving Soto’s already elite barrel rate an extra edge.

The Padres’ pitching staff has been prone to surrendering the long ball, ranking among the bottom third of MLB in home runs allowed. Soto, with a full complement of plate appearances likely near the top of the lineup, offers both volume and upside.

At +420, he’s one of the more attractive home run props on the board.

Also see: Padres vs Mets predictions

Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Trevor Story draws a perfect storm matchup against Oakland’s Jeffrey Springs. The left-hander has been one of the league’s most homer-prone starters, giving up 1.56 HR/9 while allowing right-handed bats to slug .629 against him. Combine that with Fenway Park’s inviting left-field dimensions, and Story’s pull-heavy swing profile makes him a prime candidate to go yard.

Batting in the heart of Boston’s lineup, Story brings plenty of home run potential. His recent form has shown signs of life, and at +450, this is one of the sharper plus-money MLB home run props available tonight.

Also see: A's vs Red Sox predictions

Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+240)

Few hitters in baseball can match the raw power of Giancarlo Stanton, and advanced models peg him at a 32.7% chance to homer against the Twins tonight. Stanton has been trending upward with multiple long balls over the past two weeks, flashing the elite barrel percentage and exit velocity that make him a constant threat.

At +240 his implied probability is 29.4%, so we are catching a little bit of value, despite lower plus money odds than we generally like to see on the homer props board.

That said, Stanton’s power upside is clear. For those scanning MLB HR props, Stanton should be at the top of the list.

Also see: Yankees vs Twins predictions