Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions for Thursday, October 16, 2025
The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series with the first pitch at 8:33 PM ET, televised on FS1. Toronto broke out in Game 3 with a 13–4 win, cutting into Seattle’s lead, but the Mariners still hold a 2–1 edge in the best-of-seven series. Hit the winning home run with our MLB picks.
Game Information
Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025
Time: 8:33 PM ET
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
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Television Coverage: FS1
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s bats finally came alive in Game 3, as the Blue Jays scored 13 runs after being limited to just four in the first two games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has led the way all postseason, hitting .375 with three home runs and nine RBI. Ernie Clement continues to provide timely hitting, batting .476 with a .478 on-base percentage, while Daulton Varsho’s .696 slugging percentage adds power in the middle of the order.
The Blue Jays have scored 36 runs across six postseason games, and the lineup is deep enough to test any arm when they make contact. The challenge now is to solve Luis Castillo, who silenced them in Game 1. If Max Scherzer can give Toronto five solid innings in his first playoff start, the bullpen can manage the rest. The Jays’ best shot is another fast start, keeping Seattle on its heels and forcing them into bullpen matchups by the middle innings.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle still holds the series lead after two big wins in Toronto, but the Game 3 loss reminded them how quickly momentum can swing. Castillo was excellent in his last start, throwing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit. The right-hander’s command and changeup were the difference, and the Mariners will need a similar outing to regain control of the ALCS.
Cal Raleigh remains the main source of power with two postseason homers and six RBI, while Julio Rodríguez continues to get on base near the top of the lineup. Seattle’s bullpen has shown cracks lately, so Castillo’s effectiveness in his second start in this series could decide the game. A solid six or seven innings from the right-hander will put the Mariners on the verge of a first World Series appearance in years.
Pitching Matchup
Probable Pitchers:
Toronto: Max Scherzer (RHP) - postseason debut
Seattle: Luis Castillo (RHP) - 1–0, 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 6.0 IP, 4 K
Scherzer is one of the most experienced playoff pitchers in baseball, but rust could be a factor after a long layoff. The right-hander will rely on command of this fastball and change to limit hard contact by the Mariners. Castillo has pitched well the last month, using his fastball-change mix to keep right-handed hitters off balance. The right-hander’s ability to repeat that Game 1 performance will be a determining factor in the outcome.
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners Prediction
Both teams have reason for confidence, but Seattle’s starter is more reliable, and the home crowd should help them bounce back after a rough Game 3. Toronto’s lineup is dangerous, yet Castillo’s form gives Seattle the advantage in another close game. Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners win 4-3.
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