Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Atlanta gets another crack at Houston Monday, and the Hawks probably don’t mind that. They just lost 121-114 to the Rockets on Saturday, but they also shot 12-for-45 from three and still managed to make things interesting late. Houston led by 20 in the fourth quarter before Atlanta cut it to five. Now the teams are going to Houston for the rematch. The Rockets have won their first three games, and they’ve been the better team so far. But beating the same opponent twice in three days isn’t always as easy as it looks.
Atlanta visits Houston at Toyota Center on Monday, October 26, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET. The betting market is still developing, so I’m looking at Atlanta +7.5 or better and Over 226.5 or lower. Those are my betting thresholds rather than confirmed sportsbook numbers. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks to be ready for the season.
Atlanta Hawks Have Enough Offense to Make This Interesting
Atlanta is 2-1 after beating Orlando 132-125 and Charlotte 128-81 before losing to Houston 121-114. The Hawks had been averaging 130 points through their first two games, and even Saturday’s loss wasn’t a complete offensive disaster. They scored 114 despite shooting terribly from three. Atlanta fell behind by 20 in the fourth quarter, then made a late run that had Houston sweating a little. The Hawks have shown they can score, and I don’t think they’re going to shoot 26.7% from outside every night.
Atlanta made 12 of 45 three-point attempts Saturday. That’s a lot of misses, and some of them were good looks. The Hawks also scored 58 points in the paint and had 20 fast-break points, which tells me they weren’t completely dependent on the outside shot. Houston’s defense deserves credit for making things difficult, but Atlanta still found ways to attack. The problem was giving up 22 second-chance points. Houston grabbed 13 offensive rebounds, and those extra possessions were expensive. If the Hawks don’t do a better job on the glass Monday, better shooting might not be enough.
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Jalen Johnson was excellent Saturday, finishing with 26 points, 16 assists, and nine rebounds. That’s a pretty impressive night in a losing effort. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels added 18 points apiece, while Aaron Wiggins gave Atlanta 16 off the bench. The Hawks have enough contributors to make Houston defend the whole floor. They do have some injury concerns, with Henri Veesaar and Mouhamed Gueye unavailable. But the main issue isn’t who they’re missing. It’s whether they can keep Houston off the offensive glass and make a few more threes. Fix those two things, and this could be a very different game.
Houston Rockets Have Been Doing the Little Things Right
Houston is 3-0 after beating Dallas 128-110, San Antonio 114-110, and Atlanta 121-114. That’s a pretty good opening week. The Rockets haven’t needed one player to carry them every night, either. Seven players scored in double figures against Atlanta, and Houston was able to withstand the Hawks’ late push. The Rockets led by 20 in the fourth quarter before things got uncomfortable, but they made enough plays to finish the job. Houston hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2017-18, and there’s a reason for that improvement. The Rockets are getting contributions from all over the roster.
Houston’s rebounding has been a major advantage. The Rockets led the NBA in offensive rebounds last season, and they grabbed 13 more against Atlanta. Those boards turned into 22 second-chance points. That’s where Saturday’s game was really decided. Atlanta actually scored more points in the paint and on the fast break, but Houston kept getting extra opportunities. The Rockets also shot 40% from three while Atlanta made only 26.7%. That’s a pretty big difference. I wouldn’t assume Houston shoots that well again Monday, but the rebounding advantage is something the Rockets can probably count on.
Kevin Durant scored 22 Saturday, while Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason added 19 apiece. Amen Thompson finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds, and Alperen Sengun had 17 points and ten boards. That’s five players making a real contribution, and it makes Houston difficult to defend. Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, and Marcus Smart are listed with injuries, but the Rockets have enough depth to keep playing well. The bigger concern is whether Houston gets a little comfortable after beating Atlanta on the road. The Hawks will have Sunday to look at what went wrong, and I expect them to make adjustments.
Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions
Atlanta Hawks +7.5 or Better
I’ll take Atlanta if the Hawks are getting 7.5 points or more. Houston deserved Saturday’s win, and the Rockets have been excellent through three games. But Atlanta shot 12-for-45 from three and still lost by only seven. That’s what catches my attention. The Hawks scored 58 points in the paint and nearly came all the way back from 20 down. Houston’s offensive rebounding is a real problem, and Atlanta has to fix that if it wants to win. But I think the Hawks will shoot better Monday, and I’m not convinced the Rockets will get the same 40% performance from outside. Houston probably wins again. I just think Atlanta keeps it close enough to cover a decent number.
Over 226.5 or Lower
I’m taking the over if the total is 226.5 or lower. These teams combined for 235 points Saturday, and Atlanta shot poorly from three. The Hawks have scored 132, 128, and 114, while Houston has put up 128, 114, and 121. Both offenses are producing, and neither team has shown much interest in slowing the game down. Houston’s offensive rebounds create extra possessions, and Atlanta has been getting plenty of points in transition. The concern is that the rematch becomes more defensive after both coaching staffs make adjustments. That’s possible. But I think there’s enough scoring talent here to get past 226.5, especially if Atlanta makes a few more outside shots.
Final Picks: Atlanta Hawks +7.5 or better and Over 226.5 or lower
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