Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 12:20 AM ET

Miami hasn’t won a game yet, and Dallas is showing up without the guy who was supposed to be carrying a good chunk of its offense. That’s not exactly a matchup between two teams feeling great about themselves. The Heat have lost to Minnesota, Detroit, and Charlotte, while the Mavericks just got handled by San Antonio at home. Somebody is finally going to feel a little better Monday. I think it’s Miami, mostly because Dallas is running out of healthy bodies.

Dallas visits Miami at Kaseya Center on Monday, October 26, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET, with NBA TV among the listed broadcasts. A dependable consensus spread and total haven’t been established, so my betting thresholds are Miami -6.5 or better and Under 229.5 or higher. Those are recommendations rather than confirmed sportsbook numbers. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks to be ready for the season.

Dallas Mavericks Are Already Dealing With Injuries

Dallas is 1-2 after losing 128-110 at Houston, beating Indiana 121-105, and falling 122-106 to San Antonio on Saturday. The Mavericks looked pretty good against the Pacers, but that victory came with a cost. Cooper Flagg injured his left shoulder and is expected to be reevaluated next week. He missed Saturday’s game, and Dallas looked like a different team without him. The Mavericks stayed close for three quarters before getting outscored 30-17 in the fourth. That’s the kind of finish you get when a team runs out of offense and doesn’t have enough healthy players to change things.

Dallas actually shot 51.1% against San Antonio, which makes the 16-point loss a little more frustrating. The Mavericks had 18 turnovers, and the Spurs took advantage. San Antonio also grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and outscored Dallas 25-10 on second-chance points. That’s a lot of extra possessions to hand an opponent. Dallas did get 56 points from its bench, but the five starters combined for only 50. That isn’t going to work very often, particularly against a Miami team that will be desperate to get its first win. The Mavericks need to take better care of the ball and stop giving opponents easy opportunities.

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Flagg is the biggest absence. He scored 32 points against Houston in the opener and had 14 points and six assists in just 17 minutes against Indiana before getting hurt. Kyrie Irving also missed Saturday’s game because of knee management, and his availability for Monday needs to be checked. Dallas is already without Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin, and Tarik Biberovic. That’s a lot of missing depth, especially in the frontcourt. Sergio de Larrea scored 21 off the bench against San Antonio, but asking a rookie reserve to carry the offense isn’t much of a plan. Dallas needs Irving back, and even then, the Mavericks will be shorthanded.

Miami Heat Have to Get Their First Win Somewhere

Miami is 0-3 after losing 131-106 to Minnesota, 128-111 to Detroit, and 115-110 at Charlotte. The Heat haven’t been able to defend consistently, and that’s the main reason they’re still looking for a win. Minnesota scored 131, Detroit put up 128, and Charlotte managed 115. Miami has allowed 124.7 points per game through three outings. That’s a terrible start for a team that went 43-39 last season and won 26 games at home. The Heat need to stop giving opponents so many easy baskets, and Dallas might be the right opponent to help them do it.

Miami’s offense hasn’t been terrible. The Heat have averaged 109 points, and they were within five at Charlotte on Saturday. The problem is they’re constantly having to score just to keep up. Against Detroit, Miami allowed 41 points in the first quarter and another 38 in the third. That’s not sustainable. The Heat have to do a better job defending the paint and finishing possessions with rebounds. Dallas just gave up 15 offensive boards to San Antonio, so Miami should have opportunities to get second-chance points of its own. The Mavericks are also turning the ball over too much, and the Heat need to turn those mistakes into easy baskets.

Bam Adebayo gives Miami an advantage inside, particularly with Dallas missing Lively and Aldama. The Heat also have enough perimeter scoring to take advantage if the Mavericks collapse too much toward the basket. Miami doesn’t have a major injury problem listed heading into Monday, and that’s a pretty significant difference between these teams. The Heat aren’t playing well, but at least they have most of their regular rotation available. Dallas can’t say the same. I expect Miami to attack the Mavericks inside early and try to put pressure on their thin frontcourt.

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions

Miami Heat -6.5 or Better

I’ll lay up to 6.5 with Miami. The Heat are 0-3, so I’m not pretending this is some great team that’s just been unlucky. They’ve defended poorly, and they haven’t earned much trust. But Dallas is in a difficult spot. Flagg is out, Irving’s status needs confirmation, and the Mavericks are missing several frontcourt players. Miami should have an advantage around the basket, and Adebayo could cause Dallas plenty of problems. The Mavericks might keep it close if Irving returns and their bench has another strong night. But I think Miami finally gets a win, and the Heat should have enough offense to cover a reasonable number at home.

Under 229.5 or Higher

I’m going under if the total is 229.5 or higher. Dallas scored 106 against San Antonio without Flagg and Irving, and the Mavericks could have trouble getting much more than that against Miami. The Heat have been allowing too many points, but Dallas doesn’t have the same offensive firepower as Minnesota or Detroit right now. Miami also has an incentive to slow things down and play a more controlled game after three straight losses. The danger is another poor defensive showing from the Heat, which could turn this into a higher-scoring game than I’m expecting. Still, I think Dallas struggles to reach 110, and Miami shouldn’t need 125 to win. Give me the under.

Final Picks: Miami Heat -6.5 or better and Under 229.5 or higher