Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Golden State is 0-3, and now the Warriors have to go to Denver. That’s a lousy place to try to get your first win, especially when half your regular rotation seems to be sitting in street clothes. Denver isn’t exactly playing flawless basketball either. The Nuggets just needed overtime to beat New Orleans after falling behind by 23 points. But there’s one matchup I can’t get past. Who is Golden State going to use to keep Nikola Jokic from doing whatever he wants around the basket?
The Warriors visit the Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, on Monday, October 26, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET, with coverage on NBC Sports Network and Peacock. Golden State has been struggling offensively, and Denver should have a major advantage inside. My preferred bets are Denver -9.5 or better and Over 230.5 or lower, provided Golden State gets enough of its regular rotation back. These are betting thresholds, not confirmed sportsbook lines. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks to be ready for the season.
Golden State Warriors Are Already in Trouble
Golden State is 0-3 after losing 127-105 to the Lakers, 111-108 to Memphis, and 131-122 at Phoenix on Saturday. The Memphis loss might be the one that bothers me most. The Warriors had a 12-point lead with less than four minutes left, then watched the Grizzlies score 17 straight points. That’s a terrible way to lose a game. Saturday wasn’t much better. Golden State actually played some decent offense against Phoenix, but the Suns kept getting easy baskets. The Warriors have allowed 123 points per game through three outings. That’s not going to win many games, particularly with the offense missing so many important players.
Golden State did shoot 17-for-39 from three against Phoenix, which is encouraging. The Warriors also grabbed 19 offensive rebounds and turned them into 26 second-chance points. That’s a pretty good effort from a shorthanded lineup. But Phoenix still scored 131, including 60 points in the paint. That’s where the problems start for Monday. Denver has one of the best interior offenses in basketball, and Golden State doesn’t have the size or depth to make life particularly difficult. The Warriors need to keep Denver off the offensive glass and stop giving up easy looks around the basket. If they can’t, this could get ugly.
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Stephen Curry missed Saturday’s game for rest, and his status for Monday needs to be confirmed. Draymond Green, Al Horford, and Brandin Podziemski also sat out with back problems. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody remain out with knee injuries, while Kristaps Porzingis is sidelined by illness. That’s an awful lot of missing talent. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg scored 26 against Phoenix, while De’Anthony Melton added 25 and Brandon Williams finished with 20. Those were good performances, but asking that group to carry the Warriors against Denver is a different story. Golden State badly needs Curry and Green back if it wants to make this competitive.
Denver Nuggets Have to Stop Playing With Their Food
Denver is 1-1 after losing 96-84 at Oklahoma City and beating New Orleans 141-135 in overtime Saturday. The Nuggets were down by 23 against the Pelicans before turning things around. That’s a tremendous comeback, but I wouldn’t want to make a habit of spotting opponents that kind of lead. Denver scored 141 despite needing overtime, and the offense looked completely different from the one that managed only 84 against Oklahoma City. The Nuggets have the talent to score with anybody. They just need to stop waiting until they’re in trouble to start playing.
Denver averaged 122.1 points last season and won 28 of its 41 home games. That’s a pretty good foundation, and the Nuggets should be comfortable against a Golden State team that’s giving up 123 per night. The big advantage is inside. Phoenix just scored 60 points in the paint against the Warriors, and Denver has Jokic. That’s a bad combination for Golden State. The Nuggets can also make the Warriors defend multiple actions on the same possession, which is difficult when you’re playing a thin rotation. Denver’s defense hasn’t been perfect, but it should be able to control the game if it doesn’t get careless with the ball.
Jokic had 35 points, 15 rebounds, and ten assists against New Orleans, his 199th career regular-season triple-double. Jamal Murray scored 42, and the two of them carried Denver through that comeback. Golden State has to find a way to slow both, which is easier said than done. The Nuggets are missing Cameron Johnson with an ankle injury, Spencer Jones with a hamstring problem, Julian Strawther with a knee injury, and Alpha Diallo with a wrist issue. That’s some missing depth, but Denver still has its two main offensive stars available. Against a Warriors team missing so many important players, that should be enough.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions
Denver Nuggets -9.5 or Better
I’ll lay up to 9.5 with Denver, provided Golden State’s injury situation doesn’t improve dramatically. The Warriors have lost three straight, they’re giving up 123 points per game, and they just allowed Phoenix to score 60 in the paint. Now they have to deal with Jokic. That’s a matchup I don’t like for Golden State at all. Denver also has Murray coming off a 42-point performance, and the Nuggets should be able to score without needing another overtime comeback. The concern is that Curry and Green return Monday and make the Warriors much more competitive. If both are back, I’d want to reconsider the spread. But with Golden State as shorthanded as it was Saturday, Denver should win comfortably.
Over 230.5 or Lower
I’m looking at the over if the total is 230.5 or lower and Golden State gets some of its offensive pieces back. Denver just scored 141 in overtime, and the Warriors have allowed 127, 111, and 131. The Nuggets should have plenty of scoring opportunities inside, and Golden State has shown it can make threes even with a depleted lineup. The Warriors scored 122 against Phoenix and hit 17 shots from outside. The risk is that Golden State struggles badly if Curry remains out and Denver controls the pace. That’s why the injury report matters so much here. But with Curry available, I think both teams can score enough to get past 230.5.
Final Picks: Denver Nuggets -9.5 or better and Over 230.5 or lower, conditional on Golden State’s final injury report
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