New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Picks and Predictions for Saturday, December 27, 2025

By: Kim Smith Published 12/27/2025, 01:20 AM ET

The New York Knicks head to State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia to face the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET. This one has a clear “form vs venue” feel: New York owns the better overall résumé, while Atlanta is trying to snap a brutal slide at home. Oddsmakers have the Knicks favored (around Knicks -5.5), with a big total sitting near 243.5, and New York priced as the more likely winner on the moneyline. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks.

Knicks Profile Check: Elite Efficiency, Real Defence, and a Road Test

New York comes in at 21–9 overall (but just 5–7 on the road), and that split matters because it’s the main argument for Atlanta hanging around. Still, the Knicks’ overall numbers are the numbers of a top-tier team: they’re scoring 120.3 points per game while allowing only 113.3, and that gap is exactly why they’re being asked to cover a road number rather than simply “win.” They’re also doing it with a balanced team shape—48% from the field, 46.1 rebounds, and 26.9 assists per night—so they’re not relying on one fragile trick to generate offence.

Their recent run is solid as well. Over the last five, New York has won three of five, including a big emotional win on December 25 (126–124 vs Cleveland). Even in the one game they lost at Minnesota (115–104), it wasn’t the kind of defensive meltdown that derails confidence—more like a reminder that road games can tighten up if the shots don’t fall early. The short version: New York’s “default setting” is organised basketball, and that travels better than most styles, even if their road record hasn’t been sparkling.

Injuries are part of the handicap, and the Knicks’ report lists Josh Hart (OUT, expected back Dec. 29), Landry Shamet (OUT, expected back Jan. 3), and Miles McBride (GTD, Dec. 27). If McBride is limited or out, it can matter for perimeter depth, but New York’s bigger edge still comes from the way they control possessions and defend for long stretches without needing chaos.

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Hawks Snapshot: High-Output Offence, Leaky Defence, and a Five-Game Skid

Atlanta is 15–17 overall and 5–10 at home, and the timing couldn’t be worse: the Hawks enter on a five-game losing streak, and their last five results are a straight line of frustration—losses to Miami, Chicago twice, San Antonio, and Charlotte. What’s most telling is that several of those games weren’t just losses—they were the kind of games where Atlanta couldn’t string together enough stops to ever flip the momentum.

The team stats explain why. Atlanta is scoring 118.8 points per game, which is plenty, but they’re giving up 119.8—and when your defence is conceding basically 120 a night, you have to be hot offensively just to survive. They do shoot well (48% FG) and they move the ball at a high level (31.1 assists per game), which is a real strength and the reason this matchup carries such a large total. But the weak points show up where underdogs usually get punished: 41.6 rebounds per game is light, and if you’re not winning the glass, you’re handing extra possessions to a Knicks team that already scores efficiently.

Atlanta’s injury report is also not nothing. Kristaps Porzingis is OUT (expected back Dec. 29), and they also list N’Faly Dante (OFS) and Eli John Ndiaye (OFS). However you feel about matchups, missing frontcourt size tends to show up in the exact areas where New York likes to press—second chances, rim pressure, and the ability to end defensive possessions cleanly.

How This Game Gets Decided

This matchup is basically a tug-of-war between Atlanta’s ability to create offence through passing and pace and New York’s ability to turn the game into a possession-by-possession grind. If Atlanta is hitting shots early, that total (243.5) suddenly looks very live, because the Hawks can drag opponents into “score with me” basketball. But the longer the game goes, the more I trust New York to find defensive solutions, slow the tempo after makes, and take away the easy stuff that fuels Atlanta runs.

The other key is simple: can Atlanta get stops? Their season-long defensive number says “not consistently,” and when you pair that with a five-game slide, it’s hard to bet on a sudden 48-minute defensive revival—especially against a Knicks team scoring over 120 per game on strong shooting.

Picks and Predictions

I’m backing New York -5.5 as my best bet. Even acknowledging the Knicks’ mediocre road record, the overall profile gap is meaningful: New York is the better scoring team and the better defensive team, and that’s usually the recipe you want when laying points. Atlanta’s current form (five straight losses) matters to me because it suggests their margin for error is tiny—if they fall behind by 8–12 at any point, their defence hasn’t shown it can reliably generate the string of stops needed to climb back without turning the game into a shootout.

For the total, I lean Under 243.5, and it’s mostly a “number vs style” call. Atlanta’s games can absolutely fly, but 243.5 is a massive ask unless both teams are living at the line and trading quick scores all night. New York’s defensive numbers (113.3 allowed) suggest they can pull opponents into more uncomfortable possessions, and Atlanta being shorthanded in the frontcourt (with Porzingis OUT) can also reduce some of the lineup options that help them keep scoring pressure on for four quarters. I’m not calling the under a slam dunk—Atlanta’s assist rate and pace keep it dangerous—but if I’m choosing, I’d rather bet on New York making this slightly more controlled than Atlanta turning it into a full-on track meet. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on the Hawks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Knicks with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Hawks vs Knicks you are using the BetMGM bonus code.

Projected score: Knicks 124, Hawks 116

Best bet: Knicks -5.5

Secondary lean: Under 243.5