Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026
Oklahoma City is undefeated, and normally I’d be looking for a reason to back the Thunder without thinking too hard about it. But have you seen their injury report? Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are both headed for surgery. Chet Holmgren is also out. That’s three important pieces missing from a team that’s supposed to be competing for another championship. Dallas has injuries too, so I’m not saying the Mavericks are suddenly the better team. But I’m not laying a big spread with Oklahoma City right now. I’d rather take the Thunder to win and leave the points alone.
The Thunder visit American Airlines Center in Dallas on Wednesday, October 28. Tipoff is at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. Oklahoma City is 3-0 after beating Phoenix on Monday, while Dallas is 2-2. I’m taking Oklahoma City on the moneyline and Under 222.5 points as a target total. Be ready for the entire NBA season with our free NBA picks.
Oklahoma City Thunder Are Winning Despite the Injuries
Oklahoma City opened the season with a 96-84 win over Denver, then beat the Clippers 108-101 and Phoenix 125-114. That’s three wins, and the Thunder have done it against some pretty good competition. The Denver game was especially impressive defensively. Oklahoma City held the Nuggets to 84 points, and that’s not something you see very often. The Thunder have been able to win without needing 130 points every night. That’s why I still trust them even with the injuries.
The Thunder have averaged about 110 points and allowed just under 100 through three games. Those are good defensive numbers, and the ability to get stops is what makes Oklahoma City dangerous. But the injuries could change how the team plays. Losing multiple starters means the Thunder may need to slow things down and rely more on half-court possessions. Dallas has enough scoring to make this interesting, but Oklahoma City has been better defensively so far.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.7 points, and he’s still the player I’d trust most in this game. Ajay Mitchell has been helping with scoring and steals, but the Thunder are going to need more from their bench. Williams suffered a serious leg and ankle injury against the Clippers, while Wallace tore the labrum in his shoulder. Both are expected to need surgery. Holmgren is also sidelined with a knee injury, and Alex Caruso has been dealing with an ankle issue. That’s a lot of talent missing. Oklahoma City can still win, but I wouldn’t pretend it’s the same team that started the season.
Dallas Mavericks Have a Chance to Make This Interesting
Dallas is 2-2 after winning 113-109 in Miami on Monday. The Mavericks also beat Indiana 121-105 on Friday, but they lost to San Antonio 122-106 on Saturday. That’s been the story early. Dallas has looked pretty good in spots, then had stretches where the offense gets stuck or the defense gives up too many easy baskets. The Mavericks are back home Wednesday, and this is a chance to take advantage of an Oklahoma City team that’s missing several important players.
Dallas has enough offense to stay competitive, but the Mavericks haven’t been consistent enough defensively. The San Antonio game was a good example. They allowed 122 points and couldn’t keep the Spurs out of the paint. Oklahoma City is missing Holmgren, so Dallas may have a better chance to control the boards. But the Thunder still have guards who can create offense, and the Mavericks can’t let Gilgeous-Alexander spend the night getting into the lane.
Cooper Flagg scored 29 points against Miami on Monday, and that’s the sort of performance Dallas needs from him. Kyrie Irving gives the Mavericks another player who can create a shot late in the clock, while P.J. Washington has been helping on the glass. The injury list is a problem, though. Dereck Lively II is out with a foot injury, Santi Aldama is sidelined with a knee issue, and Caleb Martin is unavailable with a thumb injury. Naji Marshall has also been dealing with an illness. Dallas isn’t exactly healthy enough to take full advantage of Oklahoma City’s problems.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline
I’m taking Oklahoma City to win, but I wouldn’t lay a big spread. The Thunder have too many injuries for that. Losing Williams, Wallace and Holmgren changes what they can do on both ends, and Dallas is good enough to make them work. But Oklahoma City has been defending well, and Gilgeous-Alexander is still the best player I’d trust to get a basket when it matters. Dallas has its own injury problems, especially inside. I think the Thunder can keep the game under control without needing a blowout. Oklahoma City wins a close one.
Under 222.5 — Target Total
Under 222.5 is my other pick. Oklahoma City has been winning with defense, and the Thunder are missing too many offensive contributors for me to expect a huge scoring night. Dallas has enough talent to score, but the Mavericks haven’t been especially consistent. The danger is Gilgeous-Alexander getting to the foul line all night or Flagg having another big game. That could push the score up. But I think Oklahoma City tries to make this a slower game and protect its depleted rotation. Something like Thunder 110-105 would make sense.
Final Picks: Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline and Under 222.5 (target total)
Preview prepared October 27, 2026.
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