Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Phoenix scored 83 points in Portland to open the season. Eighty-three. Then the Suns went home Saturday and scored 131 against Golden State. That’s quite a difference, and now they’re going to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that has been making life miserable for opposing offenses. The Suns might be feeling better after beating the Warriors, but this is a much tougher assignment. Oklahoma City is already 2-0, and its defense has been excellent.
Phoenix visits Oklahoma City at Paycom Center on Monday, October 26, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. The Thunder play the Clippers on Sunday, so Monday will be the second night of a back-to-back for Oklahoma City. The betting market isn’t firmly established yet. I’d be interested in Phoenix +12.5 or better and Under 229.5 or higher. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks to be ready for the season.
Phoenix Suns Have Already Shown Two Very Different Versions
Phoenix is 1-1 after losing 124-83 at Portland and beating Golden State 131-122 on Saturday. That’s a 48-point improvement in scoring from one game to the next. The Suns looked completely lost against Portland, shooting 35.7% from the field and 19.4% from three. Then they came home and found their offense against the Warriors. It’s a reminder that two games don’t tell us everything about a team. But the Portland loss still bothers me, especially with Oklahoma City’s defense waiting Monday.
Phoenix had only 14 assists against Portland and turned the ball over 16 times. That’s not the kind of offense that travels well. The Suns also got beaten badly on the glass, with Portland grabbing 56 rebounds to Phoenix’s 39. Oklahoma City is going to challenge them in both areas. The Thunder are forcing turnovers and making opponents work for every shot. Phoenix needs to move the ball much better than it did in Portland, and it can’t afford another night where the outside shots disappear. The Suns have enough scoring ability to make this interesting, but they have to take care of the basketball.
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Devin Booker remains the main offensive threat, and Jalen Green gives Phoenix another scorer who can create his own shot. The Suns also need more production from their frontcourt. Mark Williams is out following shoulder surgery, and Oso Ighodaro has been dealing with an oblique problem. That leaves Phoenix short on size against a Thunder team that has been rebounding well. Luke Kennard has also been managing a knee issue. Phoenix’s guards can keep the Suns competitive, but the lack of healthy frontcourt depth is a real concern.
Oklahoma City Thunder Are Making Opponents Work for Everything
Oklahoma City is 2-0 heading into Sunday’s game against the Clippers. The Thunder beat San Antonio 116-104 in their opener and followed with a 96-84 victory over Denver. That’s 106 points scored and only 94 allowed per game. The Denver game was especially impressive defensively. Oklahoma City held the Nuggets to 84 points and never let them get comfortable. That’s the sort of performance that makes me think Phoenix is going to have trouble scoring consistently Monday, even after its big night against Golden State.
The Thunder are holding opponents to 38.3% shooting and 26.9% from three through two games. They’ve also forced 19 turnovers per game. Those are ugly numbers for opposing offenses. Oklahoma City isn’t shooting particularly well itself, making 41.6% from the field, but it hasn’t needed to. The Thunder are winning with defense, rebounding, and extra possessions. Phoenix turned the ball over 16 times against Portland, and Oklahoma City is much better at turning those mistakes into points. If the Suns get careless, this could get away from them quickly.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the player Phoenix has to worry about most. He’s capable of taking over a game even when the rest of Oklahoma City’s offense isn’t clicking. Jalen Williams gives the Thunder another reliable scoring option, and the team has enough depth to survive a difficult shooting night. Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, and Otega Oweh are out, but Oklahoma City’s main rotation remains strong. The biggest question is Sunday’s game against the Clippers. If that turns into a physical, high-minute contest, the Thunder could be a little tired Monday. That’s one reason I’m not eager to lay a huge spread.
Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions
Phoenix Suns +12.5 or Better
I’ll take Phoenix if the Suns are getting 12.5 points or more. Oklahoma City is the better team, and I expect the Thunder to win. But the schedule matters. The Thunder have to play the Clippers on Sunday, and Phoenix has had a day off after beating Golden State. The Suns also showed Saturday that their offense is capable of much more than the 83 points they scored in Portland. Oklahoma City’s defense could absolutely shut them down again, and Phoenix’s frontcourt injuries are a problem. Still, double digits is a lot to lay on the second night of a back-to-back. I’ll take the points at 12.5 or better.
Under 229.5 or Higher
I’m going under if the total is 229.5 or higher. Oklahoma City has allowed 104 and 84 points, and the Thunder have been forcing turnovers without giving opponents many clean looks. Phoenix scored 131 Saturday, but I don’t expect the Suns to find nearly as much room against this defense. The Thunder could also be a little tired after Sunday’s game, which might keep their own scoring down. The obvious danger is Phoenix’s defense. Portland scored 124 against the Suns, and Oklahoma City has enough talent to do something similar. But I think the Thunder control the pace, and Phoenix struggles to get much past 105. Give me the under.
Final Picks: Phoenix Suns +12.5 or better and Under 229.5 or higher
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