Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears Picks and Predictions for Tuesday March 10 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/10/2026, 12:55 AM ET

The Arizona State Sun Devils face the Baylor Bears in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament First Round at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri on Tuesday, March 10, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 PM ET and the game will be televised on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to also check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and expert analysis.

Sun Devils Enter Tournament Looking to Build Momentum

Arizona State enters the Big 12 Tournament with a 16-15 overall record and a 7-11 mark in conference play. The Sun Devils have had an inconsistent stretch recently as they recently lost to Iowa State 86-65, recently won over Kansas 70-60, recently won over Utah 73-60, recently lost to TCU 90-78, and recently lost to Baylor 73-68.

Arizona State averages 77.2 points per game while allowing 77.9 points per contest this season. The Sun Devils shoot 45% from the field and average 33.3 rebounds per game while also producing 14.0 assists per contest. Defensively they generate activity with 4.7 blocks and 7.0 steals per game.

The Sun Devils have been a fairly balanced team offensively, but their biggest challenge has been consistency on defense. Allowing nearly 78 points per game has put pressure on the offense to keep up in higher scoring contests, especially against stronger conference opponents.

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Baylor Looking to Repeat Success Against Arizona State

Baylor comes into the Big 12 Tournament with a 16-15 overall record and a 6-12 conference mark. The Bears have had mixed results recently as they recently won over Utah 101-75, recently lost to Houston 77-64, recently won over UCF 87-86, recently lost to Arizona 87-80, and recently won over Arizona State 73-68.

The Bears average an impressive 82.7 points per game while allowing 77.0 points per contest. Baylor shoots 48% from the field and has been strong on the glass with 36.8 rebounds per game while also averaging 15.9 assists per contest.

Offensively Baylor has been one of the more explosive teams in the conference. Their scoring average above 80 points per game highlights their ability to push the pace and create efficient scoring opportunities, which has often helped them overcome defensive lapses.

Arizona State vs Baylor Pick

Baylor Bears Moneyline

Baylor already showed they can handle Arizona State recently with a 73-68 victory, and their offensive efficiency should be a key factor again here. The Bears shoot a higher percentage from the field and average over five more points per game than the Sun Devils. With Baylor’s ability to push the tempo and generate offense, they should have the advantage in this tournament matchup.

Arizona State vs Baylor Total Pick

Take the Over if the total is set at 152

I expect a fairly fast-paced game between these teams. Baylor games tend to feature plenty of scoring and Arizona State’s defense has allowed nearly 78 points per game this season. With both teams capable of scoring in bunches, I see this game pushing toward the over.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor 84, Arizona State 77

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