Baylor Bears vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Picks and Predictions for Wednesday April 1 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 04/01/2026, 12:05 AM ET

The Baylor Bears and Minnesota Golden Gophers meet in the College Basketball Crown Quarterfinal at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 10:30 PM ET on FS1. Baylor enters this matchup as a slight favorite with a -3.5 spread and a -180 moneyline, while Minnesota comes back as a +3.5 underdog with a +150 moneyline. The total for this game is set at 148.5. This neutral-site tournament matchup features two teams trying to extend their postseason run, and bettors can also check out our free college basketball picks by visiting free college basketball picks for additional insight.

Baylor Searching for Offensive Rhythm

Baylor enters this quarterfinal matchup with a 16-16 overall record and a 6-13 mark in Big 12 play. Their conference tournament run ended in the first round of the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament, where they recently lost to Arizona State 83-79. Leading into that matchup, Baylor had mixed results, recently losing to Arizona State, Houston, and Arizona while picking up wins over Utah and UCF. The inconsistency has defined their season, but they have shown flashes of high-level offensive production capable of swinging games in their favor.

From a statistical standpoint, Baylor has been the more explosive offensive team in this matchup, averaging 82.6 points per game while allowing 77.2 points on the defensive end. They shoot an efficient 48% from the field while pulling down 36.8 rebounds per game and distributing 15.8 assists. Defensively, they contribute 4.0 blocks and 6.6 steals per contest, giving them the ability to disrupt opposing offenses and create transition opportunities. Their scoring ability remains their biggest strength, especially when they can maintain efficiency from the field.

In their last game against Arizona State, Baylor saw Cameron Carr lead the way with 25 points while also grabbing 7 rebounds, making him both the leading scorer and rebounder in that contest. Despite the loss, Baylor stayed competitive by shooting 76% from the free throw line and controlling the boards with 36 rebounds. However, their 42% shooting from the field and struggles from beyond the arc proved costly. Heading into this matchup, Baylor’s ability to improve shooting efficiency, especially from three-point range, will be critical in a quick-turnaround tournament setting.

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Minnesota Aiming to Slow the Tempo

Minnesota comes into this quarterfinal matchup with a 15-17 overall record and an 8-13 mark in Big Ten play. Their conference tournament run ended in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, where they recently lost to Rutgers 72-67. In recent games, Minnesota has recently lost to Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan while picking up wins over Northwestern and UCLA. Their recent stretch shows a team that can compete but has struggled to consistently close out games against quality opponents.

Statistically, Minnesota plays a slower-paced, more defense-oriented style compared to Baylor. They average 70.0 points per game while allowing just 68.5, indicating a team that prefers lower-scoring contests. They shoot 46% from the field and average 31.0 rebounds and 17.4 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 2.7 blocks and 6.5 steals, showing an ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. Their defensive discipline has been a key factor in keeping games competitive, even when their offense has struggled to keep pace.

In their last game against Rutgers, Cade Tyson led Minnesota with 24 points, while Langston Reynolds controlled the glass with 7 rebounds and also contributed 8 assists. Minnesota shot an efficient 52% from the field and 43% from three-point range in that game, but their struggles at the free throw line and a higher turnover count ultimately hurt them late. That performance highlights Minnesota’s ability to shoot efficiently, but also underscores issues with ball control and closing out tight games. In this matchup, maintaining that shooting efficiency while reducing turnovers will be key.

Baylor Bears vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick

Baylor Bears vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Spread Pick

Pick: Baylor Bears -3.5

Baylor’s offensive firepower gives them a clear edge in this matchup, especially against a Minnesota team that prefers a slower pace. The Bears have shown they can score in bunches and push tempo, which can create problems for a team like Minnesota that relies on defensive control. While Minnesota has been solid defensively, their inconsistency on offense and issues with turnovers in key moments could be the difference here. With Baylor’s ability to generate points and Minnesota’s struggles to close games, I see Baylor doing enough to cover the spread.

Baylor Bears vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Total Pick

Pick: Over 148.5

I like the over in this matchup because Baylor’s offensive style has the ability to dictate the pace of the game, even against a slower team like Minnesota. Baylor averages over 82 points per game and has shown they can push tempo, while Minnesota has demonstrated efficient shooting in recent games despite lower scoring averages. In a tournament setting, I expect both teams to find offensive rhythm, especially if Baylor speeds the game up. With both teams capable of efficient shooting, I see this total being pushed over the number.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor Bears 78, Minnesota Golden Gophers 72

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