Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Davis Aggies Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 7, 2026
Cal Poly and UC Davis square off in a Big West matchup on Saturday afternoon at the University Credit Union Center in Davis, California. Tip-off is set for 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Aggies listed as the clear favorite according to ESPN Analytics. UC Davis enters at 14-9 overall and 7-5 in conference play, while Cal Poly sits at 9-15 and 5-7 in the Big West. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.
Cal Poly Preview
Cal Poly comes in playing fast and loose, which shows up in the numbers. The Mustangs average 82.1 points per game, but they also give up 86.8, creating plenty of high-scoring outcomes. Field goal shooting has been average at 44 percent, and the offense relies heavily on Hamad Mousa, who leads the team at 21.2 points per game while also pulling down 5.9 rebounds.
Recent results tell the story of volatility. Cal Poly has scored at least 94 points in three of the last five games, including wins over UC Riverside and Cal State Bakersfield. At the same time, losses to UC Santa Barbara and Northridge exposed major issues slowing opponents down, including allowing 97 points in a one-point loss earlier this week.
UC Davis Preview
UC Davis is built more on balance and control. The Aggies average 79.8 points per game while holding opponents to 76.1, a significant gap compared to Cal Poly. Shooting stands out at 46 percent from the field, and the offense spreads responsibility across the lineup behind Hamad Mousa’s 21.2 points and Connor Sevilla’s 13.6 per game.
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At home, UC Davis has been reliable, posting a 10-3 record in Davis. The Aggies have won three of the last four games, including back-to-back victories over UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Bakersfield. Rebounding numbers are lower than Cal Poly’s, but ball movement helps offset that, with 16.3 assists per game compared to the Mustangs’ 13.4.
Cal Poly vs UC Davis Prediction
This matchup sets up well for UC Davis. Cal Poly’s scoring ability keeps the Mustangs competitive early, but the Aggies’ shooting and home-court play should wear the Mustangs down. Expect UC Davis to control the pace just enough to avoid a shootout while still scoring comfortably.
Prediction: UC Davis 84, Cal Poly 76
Best Picks:UC Davis to win straight up is the safest angle given the home record and analytics edge. The total also leans over, as Cal Poly games consistently push the pace, and the Mustangs’ defense has been limited on the road.
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