Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 21 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/21/2026, 12:40 AM ET

The Dayton Flyers and UNC Wilmington Seahawks meet in the NIT Second Round at Trask Coliseum in Wilmington, North Carolina, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Dayton enters this matchup looking to build on a strong opening-round performance, while UNC Wilmington returns home after a narrow road victory to continue its postseason run. Dayton is listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total set at 139.5, while the Flyers sit at -142 on the moneyline and the Seahawks come back at +120. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert insights and daily betting opportunities.

Flyers Finding Rhythm at the Right Time

Dayton enters this contest with a 24-11 overall record and has shown resilience throughout conference play, finishing with a solid Atlantic 10 showing. The Flyers advanced in the NIT with an impressive 80-66 win over Bradley, delivering one of their most efficient offensive performances in recent games. Over their last five contests, Dayton has recently won over Bradley, Saint Bonaventure, and Saint Louis, while recently losing to VCU twice. That stretch highlights a team that has had some inconsistency but is clearly capable of strong performances when clicking offensively.

On the season, Dayton has averaged 74.5 points per game while allowing 69.8 points per contest, reflecting a balanced style of play. They shoot 45% from the field and average 32.7 rebounds and 14.3 assists per game, showing moderate offensive efficiency. Defensively, they contribute 8.3 steals and 4.0 blocks per game, which allows them to disrupt opposing offenses and create transition opportunities. While not elite in scoring, Dayton’s ability to control tempo and generate defensive stops has been a key part of their success.

In their First Round win, Javon Bennett led the way with 25 points on an efficient 8-of-13 shooting performance, while Amaël L'Etang controlled the boards with 8 rebounds. Dayton shot an impressive 52% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc, while also knocking down 84% of their free throws. A key tournament-specific angle here is Dayton’s offensive efficiency and ball security, as they committed just 4 turnovers in that game. If the Flyers can replicate that level of execution on the road, they will be in a strong position to advance.

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Seahawks Defend Home Court with Confidence

UNC Wilmington comes into this matchup with a 27-6 overall record and has been dominant at home, boasting a 15-3 record at Trask Coliseum. The Seahawks advanced with a narrow 68-67 win over Yale, showing composure in a tight, defensive battle. Over their last five games, UNC Wilmington has recently won over Yale, Elon, and North Carolina A&T, while recently losing to Campbell and College of Charleston. That stretch reflects a team that can grind out wins, particularly in close games.

Statistically, UNC Wilmington averages 76.8 points per game while allowing 67.7 points per contest, giving them a slight edge defensively over Dayton. They shoot 44% from the field and dominate the glass with 40.2 rebounds per game, which is a significant strength. They also average 13.6 assists per game, indicating a balanced offensive approach. Defensively, they rely more on positioning than forcing turnovers, but their rebounding advantage often helps limit second-chance opportunities for opponents.

In their First Round victory, Christian May led the team with 16 points, while Patrick Wessler controlled the glass with 9 rebounds and also added 4 assists. The Seahawks shot just 36% from the field but made up for it with strong rebounding and timely defense, holding Yale to 37% shooting. The key tournament-specific angle here is UNC Wilmington’s ability to win despite inefficient shooting, relying on rebounding and defense. With the game at home, their physicality and ability to control the boards could play a major role, especially against a Dayton team that is not particularly strong in rebounding.

Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Pick

Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Spread Pick

Pick: Dayton Flyers -2.5

Dayton’s efficiency and ability to protect the basketball give them a slight edge in this matchup. While UNC Wilmington has been strong at home, the Flyers’ recent offensive performance and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities should allow them to edge out a close game. Dayton’s discipline and perimeter shooting make them the better pick to cover the spread.

Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Total Pick

Pick: Under 139.5

I like the under in this game because both teams have shown the ability to play strong defense and control tempo. UNC Wilmington’s recent win was a low-scoring contest, and Dayton can also slow things down when needed. With both teams emphasizing efficiency and half-court execution, I expect this game to stay under the total.

Final Score Prediction: Dayton Flyers 68, UNC Wilmington Seahawks 64

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