Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona Wildcats Picks and Prediction for Friday March 13 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/13/2026, 01:55 AM ET

The Iowa State Cyclones face the Arizona Wildcats in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament Semifinal on Friday, March 13, 2026, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with television coverage on ESPN. Arizona enters the matchup as a 4.5-point favorite with the total listed at 143.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.

Iowa State Looking to Continue Defensive Dominance

Iowa State enters the Big 12 Tournament Semifinal with a 27-6 overall record and a 12-6 mark in Big 12 play. The Cyclones advanced after recently winning over Texas Tech 75-53 in the tournament quarterfinal. Over their last five games, Iowa State has recently won over Texas Tech twice and Arizona State twice while recently losing to Arizona and Texas Tech.

On the season, Iowa State averages 82.1 points per game while allowing just 64.6 points per contest. The Cyclones shoot 49% from the field and average 35.6 rebounds and 17.4 assists per game. Defensively, Iowa State contributes 2.8 blocks and 9.0 steals per contest, often using aggressive perimeter pressure and transition scoring opportunities.

In the quarterfinal win over Texas Tech, Tamin Lipsey led the Cyclones with 20 points while Joshua Jefferson dominated the glass with 13 rebounds. Iowa State shot an impressive 54% from the field and controlled the boards with a 39-29 rebounding advantage. With the Cyclones already playing a tournament game and facing a short turnaround, maintaining that defensive intensity and rebounding presence will be critical against a powerful Arizona squad.

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Arizona Entering Semifinal with Momentum

Arizona enters the Big 12 Tournament Semifinal with a 30-2 overall record and a 16-2 mark in conference play. The Wildcats advanced after recently winning over UCF 81-59 in the tournament quarterfinal. Over their last five games, Arizona has recently won over UCF, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, and Baylor.

On the season, Arizona averages 86.7 points per game while allowing 68.3 points per contest. The Wildcats shoot 50% from the field and average 43.0 rebounds and 17.4 assists per game. Defensively, Arizona contributes 4.3 blocks and 8.1 steals per contest while relying on physical interior play and transition scoring.

In the quarterfinal victory over UCF, Brayden Burries led Arizona with 21 points while Tobe Awaka controlled the glass with 12 rebounds. The Wildcats also dominated the rebounding battle 44-36 and limited UCF to just 37% shooting from the field. With Arizona already holding a recent win over Iowa State and entering the semifinal with confidence, the Wildcats appear well-positioned for another strong performance.

Iowa State vs Arizona Pick

Iowa State vs Arizona Spread Pick

Pick: Arizona -4.5

Arizona has been one of the most consistent teams in the country this season and already defeated Iowa State earlier this month. The Wildcats hold a significant advantage on the boards and possess one of the most efficient offenses in the conference. With Iowa State coming off a physical quarterfinal game and Arizona entering with fresh legs and momentum, the Wildcats have the edge to cover the spread.

Iowa State vs Arizona Total Pick

Pick: Under 143.5

I like the under in this matchup because Iowa State’s defensive style often slows the pace and forces opponents into difficult shots. The Cyclones allow just 64.6 points per game this season and showed their defensive strength by holding Texas Tech to 53 points in the quarterfinal. With both teams capable defensively and the stakes high in a tournament semifinal, this game could turn into a more controlled, defensive battle.

Final Score Prediction: Arizona 72, Iowa State 67

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