Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots Picks and Predictions for Tuesday March 17 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/17/2026, 12:45 AM ET

The Liberty Flames travel to take on the George Mason Patriots at EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA, with tip-off set for 6:00 PM on ESPN2. George Mason enters as a 5.5-point home favorite with a moneyline of -238, while Liberty is listed at +195, and the total is set at 144.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily insights and predictions.

Flames Bringing Efficient Offense into Fairfax

Liberty enters this matchup with a 25-7 overall record and has had mixed results recently, recently winning over Sam Houston and Jacksonville State while recently losing to Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, and Kennesaw State. This shows a team that has been competitive but hasn’t been able to maintain consistent momentum.

The Flames are averaging 78.2 points per game while allowing around 69.0, shooting an impressive 51% from the field. They grab 29.1 rebounds per game and average 17.2 assists, while also contributing 3.4 blocks and 6.3 steals per contest.

What stands out most for Liberty is their offensive efficiency. Shooting over 50% from the field and moving the ball well makes them a difficult team to defend, especially when they get into a rhythm offensively.

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Patriots Leaning on Defense at Home

George Mason comes into this game with a 23-9 overall record and has also had some inconsistency recently, recently winning over Saint Louis and Saint Bonaventure while recently losing to Saint Bonaventure, VCU, and Saint Joseph’s. Despite those losses, they have been strong defensively throughout the season.

The Patriots are averaging 73.3 points per game while allowing around 66.0, shooting 47% from the field. They collect 34.8 rebounds per game and average 12.7 assists, while also adding 3.0 blocks and 5.0 steals per contest.

George Mason’s biggest strength is their defense. They do a great job of limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities and controlling the pace, which has been key to their success, particularly on their home floor.

Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots Pick

Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots Spread Pick

Liberty Flames +5.5

Liberty’s offensive efficiency and ability to shoot at a high percentage give them a strong chance to keep this game close. While George Mason has the defensive edge, Liberty’s scoring ability and ball movement should allow them to stay within the number and potentially challenge for an outright win. Taking the points with Liberty is the preferred play.

Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots Total Pick

Under 144.5

I like the under in this matchup because George Mason’s defensive style tends to slow games down and limit scoring opportunities. Liberty is efficient offensively, but the Patriots’ ability to control tempo should result in a lower-scoring game overall.

Final Score Prediction: George Mason Patriots 70, Liberty Flames 67

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