Long Beach State Beach vs Cal Poly Mustangs Picks and Predictions for Thursday February 26 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 02/26/2026, 02:20 AM ET

The Long Beach State Beach travel to the Mott Athletics Center to take on the Cal Poly Mustangs on Thursday, February 26, 2026. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Cal Poly enters this Big West matchup as a -4.5 favorite with a moneyline of -225, while Long Beach State comes back at +185. The total for this contest is set at 160.5 points. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert analysis on tonight’s action.

Beach Looking to Snap the Slide

Long Beach State comes into this game with an 8-20 overall record and a 4-12 mark in the Big West. The Beach have struggled away from home and are currently mired in a five-game losing streak, recently falling to CSUN 78-76, UCI 69-58, UCD 71-54, CSUF 86-82, and UCSD 77-74. Close losses have been a theme, but they have not been able to finish late in games.

Offensively, Long Beach State averages 73.6 points per game while shooting 45% from the field. They allow 76.8 points per game, which has put pressure on their offense to keep pace. The Beach pull down 32.6 rebounds per contest and dish out 13.5 assists per game.

Defensively, they generate 7.2 steals and 3.0 blocks per game, showing flashes of disruptive play. However, their inability to consistently protect the paint and limit second-chance opportunities has hurt them. If Long Beach State wants to compete here, tightening up on the defensive end will be critical.

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Cal Poly enters at 12-16 overall and 8-8 in Big West play. The Mustangs have been competitive in conference action and have won three of their last five games, recently picking up victories over HAW 86-75, UCSB 89-79, and UCI 79-73 before losses to UCD 67-58 and CSUN 97-96.

Cal Poly is scoring 81.5 points per game, one of the better offensive outputs in the conference, though they allow 84.9 points per contest. They shoot 43% from the field and average 37.6 rebounds per game along with 13.2 assists.

What stands out is their ability to push the pace and generate offense in transition. Even though their defense can be inconsistent, their scoring punch often keeps them in games. In a matchup against a struggling Long Beach State defense, that offensive firepower could be the difference.

Long Beach State vs Cal Poly Pick

Long Beach State vs Cal Poly Spread Pick

Pick: Cal Poly -4.5

Cal Poly has been playing better basketball recently and carries significant offensive momentum into this matchup. Long Beach State has dropped five straight and has struggled to close out games. With Cal Poly’s scoring ability and home-court advantage at the Mott Athletics Center, laying the small number feels like the stronger play.

Long Beach State vs Cal Poly Total Pick

Pick: Over 160.5

I like the over in this matchup. Cal Poly games tend to be high scoring due to their tempo and defensive lapses, and Long Beach State has been involved in several competitive, up-tempo games. With both teams capable of putting points on the board and defensive numbers that suggest vulnerabilities, I see this one climbing into the mid-160s.

Final Score Prediction: Cal Poly 85, Long Beach State 79

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