Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor Bears Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 02/14/2026, 01:10 AM ET

Louisville brings an 18-6 record into a neutral-site matchup with Baylor at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. Tip-off on Saturday is at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. The Cardinals have won four straight, including a 118-77 blowout over NC State, and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Louisville a strong edge at 78.1 percent. Baylor sits at 13-11 and has dropped back-to-back games, most recently a 99-94 loss to BYU. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Louisville Preview

Louisville is scoring 87.1 points per game while allowing just 70.9, a gap that shows up consistently in recent results. Ryan Conwell leads the way at 18.9 points per game and shoots 83.5 percent from the line, giving Louisville a reliable player at the line late in tight games. Mikel Brown Jr. adds 17.3 points and 5.1 assists, while Sananda Fru provides interior balance with 10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game on an efficient 75.9 percent shooting. The Cardinals shoot 47 percent from the field as a team and average 40.3 rebounds and 17.9 assists, numbers that reflect balance and depth.

Baylor Preview

Baylor averages 83.9 points per game and shoots 48.3 percent from the floor, slightly more efficient than Louisville overall. Cameron Carr leads the Bears with 19.8 points per game on 52.5 percent shooting and hits 41.4 percent from three. Tounde Yessoufou adds 18.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, and Caden Powell controls the glass with 6.7 boards per game while shooting 65.1 percent. The concern for Baylor is points allowed, as opponents are scoring 75.9 per game, and the Bears have surrendered 99 and 72 in the last two losses.

Louisville vs Baylor Prediction

This game likely comes down to tempo and shot selection. Louisville pushes pace and forces teams to match its scoring output, while Baylor prefers efficient half-court sets built around Carr and Yessoufou. The Cardinals have cleared 88 points in three of the last four games and are shooting 35.5 percent from three as a team. Baylor’s 36.4 percent team mark from deep keeps the Bears within striking distance, but recent defensive lapses are hard to ignore.

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Louisville’s current form and scoring depth give the Cardinals the edge. Expect Baylor to score, but Louisville’s rebounding advantage and free-throw reliability should create separation late.

Prediction: Louisville 86, Baylor 78

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