Memphis Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks & Predictions for Saturday December 20 2025

By: Kim Smith Published 12/20/2025, 04:40 AM ET

The Memphis Tigers head to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a Saturday afternoon non-conference matchup at Humphrey Coliseum. Tip-off is set for 4:00 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. Memphis enters this one trying to snap a short skid on the road, while Mississippi State looks to continue building momentum at home. For more betting insight and analysis, be sure to check out free college basketball picks.

Memphis Tigers Preview: Searching for Road Stability

Memphis comes into this matchup with a 4-6 overall record and has struggled away from home, sitting at 0-2 on the road. The Tigers have dropped two straight games, including an overtime loss to Vanderbilt and a blowout road loss at Louisville. While they have shown flashes with wins over Baylor and Southern Illinois, consistency—especially defensively—has been an issue in recent outings.

From a statistical standpoint, Memphis is averaging 75.1 points per game while allowing 76.9 points, which puts them on the negative side of scoring margin. The Tigers are shooting 42% from the field, rebounding well at 37.2 per game, and generating activity defensively with 8.7 steals and 4.1 blocks per contest. However, the efficiency gap on offense has hurt them against stronger competition.

Individually, Dug McDaniel leads Memphis with 14.5 points per game. While he gets to the line efficiently (91.9% FT), his 37.7% shooting from the field highlights some of the offensive efficiency issues Memphis faces, especially against physical defenses like Mississippi State’s.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview: Home-Court Edge in Starkville

Mississippi State enters this contest at 6-5 overall and has been strong at home with a 4-1 record inside Humphrey Coliseum. The Bulldogs have won two straight games, knocking off Utah and LIU, and they’ve looked more comfortable offensively during that stretch.

The Bulldogs are averaging 79.5 points per game while allowing 78.5, but their efficiency numbers stand out more than Memphis’. Mississippi State shoots 45% from the field, controls the glass with 40.4 rebounds per game, and protects the rim with 4.5 blocks per contest. That rebounding edge is especially notable against a Memphis team that relies on second-chance opportunities.

Offensively, Mississippi State is led by Josh Hubbard, who is averaging 21.6 points per game. His volume scoring gives the Bulldogs a clear offensive focal point, and his ability to carry the scoring load is a key advantage in this matchup, particularly against a Memphis defense that has struggled to contain primary scorers.

Key Points To Watch For

Mississippi State’s rebounding advantage (40.4 vs 37.2) could dictate pace and possession count.
Memphis’ defensive pressure (8.7 steals per game) versus Mississippi State’s half-court execution.
Josh Hubbard’s scoring output against a Memphis team allowing nearly 77 points per game.
Road struggles for Memphis versus Mississippi State’s strong home record.

Memphis Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick

My best pick in this matchup is Mississippi State to win on the moneyline. The Bulldogs have a clear edge at home, are shooting the ball more efficiently, and have the best scorer on the floor in Josh Hubbard. Memphis’ 0-2 road record combined with allowing nearly 77 points per game makes it difficult to trust them in a hostile SEC environment. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Memphis with the Fliff promo code. The best sportsbooks are the best way to go when you are betting on Mississippi State. Make sure when you place your Mississippi State vs Memphis bet you are using the bet365 bonus code.

My lean pick is Mississippi State against the spread. Even without a posted number here, the matchup data supports the Bulldogs creating separation through rebounding and interior defense. Memphis’ inconsistent shooting and recent road struggles suggest they may have trouble keeping pace for a full 40 minutes.

Finally, I would also lean slightly toward the under if looking at a total. Both teams allow points, but Mississippi State’s rebounding and shot-blocking could slow Memphis’ scoring efficiency, while Memphis’ own offensive inconsistencies may limit their output.

Final Score Prediction:

Mississippi State 82, Memphis 72

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