New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons Pick & Prediction for Saturday, January 10, 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 01/10/2026, 12:50 AM ET

The New Mexico Lobos hit the road to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons at Clune Arena in Mountain West play. Tipoff is set for 3:00 PM ET on MWN. This one profiles as a classic top-tier conference team versus a struggling side that’s had trouble scoring and defending for most of the season. Get ready for all the college basketball action with our free college basketball picks.

New Mexico enters at 12–3 (3–1 MWC) and continues to look like one of the steadier teams in the league. The Lobos score 79.7 PPG while allowing just 67.5 PPG, a combination that consistently puts them in control of games. They rebound well (36.7 RPG) and move the ball at a solid rate (14.4 APG), which helps them avoid long scoring droughts.

Recent form backs that up. New Mexico has won four of its last five, including road and home wins over Colorado State (80–70) and Wyoming (78–58). That Wyoming game in particular showed their defensive ceiling — they can choke off scoring when they get separation early. Jake Hall (13.5 PPG) leads a balanced attack, while Tomislav Buljan anchors the glass at 9.5 RPG.

Air Force Falcons: Struggling to score and stop the bleeding

Air Force comes in at 3–12 (0–4 MWC), and the numbers paint a difficult picture. The Falcons are scoring just 62.9 PPG while allowing 74.9 PPG, a margin that makes it hard to stay competitive once they fall behind. Rebounding (30.6 RPG) and assist numbers (11.9 APG) are also near the bottom of the matchup.

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The recent stretch has been rough. Air Force has lost five straight, including blowout defeats to Utah State (99–62) and UNLV (67–39). Even when they slow games down, the offence struggles to keep pace. Caleb Walker (12.2 PPG) is the top scorer, but the lack of perimeter efficiency and limited ball movement often leaves the Falcons chasing games from the opening minutes.

Matchup Factors

New Mexico’s +12.2 PPG scoring margin vs Air Force’s -12.0 PPG margin is a massive gap.
Air Force has failed to reach 70 points in four straight games, while New Mexico regularly pushes into the high 70s and low 80s.
New Mexico’s defence (67.5 PPG allowed) matches up perfectly against an Air Force offence that already struggles to create quality looks.

New Mexico vs Air Force Prediction

ATS Pick: New Mexico -13.5 (projected range) New Mexico has shown it can win comfortably both at home and on the road, and Air Force hasn’t shown the ability to keep games close against upper-tier Mountain West teams. If the Lobos get out to a modest early lead, their defensive consistency should allow them to stretch this into a double-digit win without needing a perfect offensive night.

Total Pick: Under 142.5 (projected range) Air Force’s scoring profile heavily favors the under. They’re averaging 62.9 PPG, and even if New Mexico scores efficiently, the Falcons’ inability to contribute consistently caps the overall total. Unless Air Force dramatically exceeds its recent output, this game likely stays below a typical mid-140s number.

Final Score Prediction

New Mexico 78, Air Force 60

New Mexico covers comfortably, and the game stays Under the total.

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