Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 7 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/07/2026, 03:35 AM ET

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks face the Idaho State Bengals in the Big Sky Championship First Round on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho. Tip-off for this tournament matchup is scheduled for 7:30 PM and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline, total, or spread. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert analysis and predictions on today’s college basketball games.

Northern Arizona Searching for Momentum

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks enter the Big Sky tournament with a 10-21 overall record and finished conference play with a 4-14 Big Sky mark. Northern Arizona struggled down the stretch and comes into the postseason on a tough run. They recently lost to Montana State 76-65, Eastern Washington 88-57, and Idaho 78-58 while also suffering a heartbreaking 78-77 loss to Northern Colorado. Their only recent victory came when they won over Sacramento State 79-74.

Offensively, Northern Arizona averages 71.5 points per game while allowing 76.5 points per contest. The Lumberjacks shoot a solid 47% from the field and average 29.9 rebounds and 13.2 assists per game. Defensively they generate 6.9 steals and 2.6 blocks per contest, showing they are capable of creating turnovers and defensive disruptions.

One area Northern Arizona has relied on this season is their efficiency shooting the basketball. Their 47% field goal percentage shows they can score when they find quality looks. However, their defensive issues have been the bigger concern, as they allow over 76 points per game which has put pressure on their offense to keep up.

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Idaho State Looks to Capitalize in Tournament Play

The Idaho State Bengals finished the regular season with a 12-19 overall record and a 5-13 mark in Big Sky play. Like their opponent, Idaho State struggled in recent games but did show flashes of strong offensive performances. They recently lost to Sacramento State 83-65 and Weber State 83-73, but earlier they picked up wins over Montana State 91-76 and Montana 73-69 before falling to Idaho 99-69.

The Bengals average 74.5 points per game while allowing 76.2 points per contest. Idaho State shoots 45% from the field while averaging 32.8 rebounds and 12.0 assists per game. They are also active defensively, producing 5.4 steals and an impressive 4.3 blocks per game.

A key strength for Idaho State has been their interior defense. Their 4.3 blocks per game highlight their ability to protect the rim and disrupt opponents inside. If they can combine that defensive presence with efficient scoring, they will have a solid opportunity to advance in this Big Sky tournament matchup.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals Pick

Pick: Idaho State Bengals Spread

Idaho State appears to have a slight edge in this matchup due to their ability to score consistently and defend the paint. Northern Arizona has struggled defensively throughout the season and comes into the tournament on a four-game losing streak. The Bengals have shown they can put up points in conference play and should be able to control the tempo against a Lumberjacks team that has had trouble stopping opponents.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals Total Pick

Pick: Over

I expect both teams to push the pace in this matchup. Idaho State averages over 74 points per game while Northern Arizona scores more than 71 points per contest. Since both teams also allow over 76 points per game, I think this game has a strong chance to turn into a higher-scoring contest, especially in a tournament setting where teams tend to play aggressively.

Final Score Prediction: Idaho State Bengals 78, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 72

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