Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 21 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/21/2026, 12:00 AM ET

The Saint Louis Billikens and Michigan Wolverines meet in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Midwest Region Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, with tip-off scheduled for 12:10 PM ET on CBS. Saint Louis enters as the No. 9 seed with a 29-5 record, while Michigan holds the No. 1 seed at 32-3. According to DraftKings, Michigan is a -12.5 favorite with a total set at 161.5, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring contest between two efficient offenses. As you break down this matchup, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert insights.

Saint Louis Billikens: Can the Underdog Keep Rolling?

Saint Louis comes into this matchup with a strong 29-5 overall record and a 15-3 mark in Atlantic 10 play. The Billikens advanced to the second round with a dominant 102-77 win over Georgia, showcasing their offensive firepower. Over their last five games, Saint Louis has recently won over Georgia and George Washington while also recently losing to Dayton and George Mason, showing some inconsistency but plenty of upside against quality competition.

From a statistical standpoint, Saint Louis has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, averaging 87.7 points per game while allowing 69.7 points. They shoot an impressive 51% from the field, matching Michigan in efficiency, and average 40.1 rebounds and 18.6 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 3.6 blocks and 7.2 steals per game, which highlights their ability to create turnovers and generate extra possessions.

A key tournament angle for Saint Louis is their offensive rhythm and rebounding dominance coming out of the first round. In their win over Georgia, the Billikens shot 58% from the field and outrebounded their opponent 47-36, a significant edge that fueled their blowout victory. Dion Brown led the way with 18 points on an ultra-efficient 9-of-10 shooting performance, while Amari McCottry controlled the glass with 9 rebounds. If Saint Louis can replicate that level of efficiency and maintain their rebounding advantage, they could hang around longer than expected against a top-seeded Michigan squad.

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Michigan Wolverines: A Powerhouse Living Up to Expectations

Michigan enters this contest with a stellar 32-3 record and a dominant 21-2 run through Big Ten competition. The Wolverines advanced comfortably with a 101-80 victory over Howard in the first round. Over their last five games, Michigan has recently won over Howard, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State, with their only recent loss coming against Purdue, highlighting their consistency against elite competition.

Statistically, Michigan mirrors Saint Louis in offensive production, averaging 87.2 points per game while allowing 69.5 points. They also shoot 51% from the field and average 39.8 rebounds and 18.7 assists per game. Where Michigan stands out is defensively, with 5.9 blocks per game, giving them a strong interior presence that can alter shots and protect the rim. They also add 5.7 steals per game, making them a balanced defensive unit.

Michigan’s key tournament advantage lies in their elite shooting efficiency and interior dominance. In the first round win over Howard, the Wolverines shot a blistering 67% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc. Morez Johnson Jr. was dominant, leading the team with 21 points on a perfect 8-of-8 shooting performance while also grabbing 10 rebounds, showcasing his two-way impact. That kind of efficiency, combined with their size and defensive presence, makes Michigan incredibly difficult to beat when they are playing at a high level.

Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Pick

Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Spread Pick

Pick: Saint Louis +12.5

While Michigan is clearly the better team on paper, the number feels a bit inflated given how well Saint Louis is playing offensively. The Billikens have shown they can score with anyone, and their efficiency combined with their rebounding ability gives them a chance to stay within striking distance. Michigan should win this game, but Saint Louis’ pace and shooting make them a dangerous underdog that can cover a large spread.

Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines Total Pick

Pick: Over 161.5

I like the over in this game because both teams are elite offensively and extremely efficient shooters. Saint Louis is coming off a 102-point performance, while Michigan just scored 101 in their opener, and both teams shoot over 50% from the field. With two fast-paced offenses and the ability to score from multiple areas, I expect this game to turn into a high-scoring affair that pushes well past the total.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan 88, Saint Louis 80

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