Saint Mary’s vs Boise State Picks & Predictions for Sunday, December 14, 2025

By: Kim Smith Published 12/14/2025, 12:55 AM ET

This late-afternoon neutral-site showdown in Idaho Falls features two well-coached, tournament-caliber teams and is a strong spot for bettors looking for free college basketball picks. Saint Mary’s enters with elite efficiency and defense, while Boise State brings momentum and balance into what should be a high-level, disciplined matchup.

Saint Mary’s Gaels Preview

Saint Mary’s comes in at 9–1 overall and continues to look every bit like a top-tier West Coast contender. The Gaels are once again built around defensive control, rebounding dominance, and efficient half-court offense. They are allowing just 63.5 points per game, one of the better defensive marks in the country, while holding opponents to tough, contested looks throughout the shot clock.

Offensively, Saint Mary’s has been more potent than in some past seasons, averaging 81.0 points per game on 48% shooting. P. Murauskas has emerged as the clear focal point, leading the team with 18.0 points per game while shooting efficiently from the floor and the free-throw line. The Gaels are also excellent on the glass, pulling down 41.3 rebounds per game, which consistently limits second chances and fuels their methodical pace.

While the loss to Vanderbilt exposed some vulnerability against high-tempo, athletic teams, Saint Mary’s responded well with controlled wins since then. Their ability to dictate tempo and avoid sloppy possessions makes them especially dangerous in neutral-site games where execution often outweighs crowd energy.

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Boise State Broncos Preview

Boise State enters at 7–3 overall and is quietly playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Broncos are riding a three-game winning streak and have shown improvement on both ends of the floor. They average 79.0 points per game, leaning on ball movement and interior efficiency rather than high-volume perimeter shooting.

D. Fielder leads the Broncos with 13.6 points per game, shooting an impressive 58.2% from the field, and Boise State’s offense benefits from balance rather than isolation-heavy scoring. They are solid on the glass at 39.0 rebounds per game, which helps them stay competitive against bigger, more physical teams like Saint Mary’s.

Defensively, Boise State allows 69.7 points per game, which is respectable but not elite. The main concern in this matchup is their limited rim protection (1.8 blocks per game) and lower steal rate, which could allow Saint Mary’s to operate comfortably in the half court. That said, Boise State has shown it can stay composed against strong opponents, and the neutral floor reduces some of the usual home-road disparity.

Matchup Breakdown & Key Factors

This game sets up as a tempo-control battle. Saint Mary’s will want to slow things down, dominate the glass, and turn this into a possession-by-possession contest. Boise State’s best chance comes from pushing selectively, scoring efficiently early in possessions, and avoiding extended defensive stands that allow the Gaels to wear teams down.

Rebounding and shot quality are the biggest swing factors. Saint Mary’s has a clear edge defensively and in overall efficiency, while Boise State needs to shoot well inside the arc and limit turnovers to stay within striking distance.

Picks & Final Score Prediction

Boise State is playing well and should be competitive for stretches, but Saint Mary’s defensive consistency and rebounding edge are hard to ignore in a neutral-site setting. Expect the Gaels to gradually assert control in the second half. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Saint Mary's with the Thrillz promo code. Make the most of your bets on Boise State by using the sportsbook promos. Make sure when you place your Boise State vs Saint Mary's bet you are using the bet365 bonus code.

Final Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s Gaels 74, Boise State Broncos 66

Best Bet Lean: Saint Mary’s to win and cover; lean to the under, as Saint Mary’s pace control and defensive discipline should limit scoring runs.

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