Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Troy Trojans Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 8 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/08/2026, 03:30 AM ET

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles and Troy Trojans meet in the Sun Belt Championship Semifinal on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET and the game will be streamed on ESPN+. Southern Miss advanced to the semifinal after winning in the quarterfinal round, while Troy earned a bye directly into the semifinal based on its conference standing. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert predictions and analysis on today’s biggest college basketball games.

Southern Miss Carrying Tournament Momentum

Southern Miss enters the semifinal matchup with a 19-15 overall record and a 9-9 mark in Sun Belt play. The Golden Eagles have been on a strong run through the conference tournament, recently winning over Appalachian State in the quarterfinal round, recently winning over Texas State, and recently winning over James Madison. Prior to the tournament run, Southern Miss recently won over South Alabama and recently lost to Arkansas State.

The Golden Eagles have produced balanced results this season, averaging 74.5 points per game while allowing 73.7 points per contest. They shoot 45% from the field, average 36.5 rebounds per game, and record 11.5 assists per contest. Defensively the team generates 3.8 blocks and 7.6 steals per game, showing an ability to create turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses.

In the quarterfinal win over Appalachian State, Tylik Weeks led the Golden Eagles with 28 points, delivering a major scoring performance that helped carry the offense. On the glass, Dylan Brumfield led Southern Miss with 9 rebounds while also contributing five assists. Southern Miss shot 48% from the field and controlled the rebounding battle 42-32, which proved to be a key factor in the victory. The main tournament angle here is the short turnaround, as Southern Miss is now playing its fourth game in four days during this impressive tournament run.

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Troy Rested After First-Round Bye

The Troy Trojans enter the semifinal with a 20-11 overall record and a 12-6 record in Sun Belt play, earning a bye directly into this semifinal round. Troy closed the regular season playing well, recently winning over UL Monroe and recently winning over Louisiana. The Trojans also recently lost to South Alabama, recently won over UL Monroe earlier in the stretch, and recently lost to Southern Miss in a close matchup.

Troy has been one of the more productive offensive teams in the conference this season. The Trojans average 80.5 points per game while allowing 73.6 points per contest. They shoot 45% from the field, average 38.4 rebounds per game, and generate 16.1 assists per contest, showing strong ball movement. Defensively the team contributes 3.4 blocks and 8.0 steals per game, which helps create additional scoring opportunities in transition.

In their most recent game, Troy secured an 80-65 win over UL Monroe in a strong overall performance. Thomas Dowd led the Trojans with 22 points and also grabbed 11 rebounds, leading the team in both scoring and rebounding. Troy shot 50% from the field and won the rebounding battle 39-31, demonstrating efficiency on both ends of the floor. The key tournament factor for the Trojans is their rest advantage, as they enter this matchup with fresh legs compared to a Southern Miss team that has been playing daily during the tournament.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Troy Trojans Pick

Southern Miss vs Troy Spread Pick

Troy Trojans Moneyline

Troy enters this semifinal with the major advantage of rest, which can be critical during conference tournament play. Southern Miss has played several games in consecutive days, and fatigue could start to affect shooting efficiency and defensive intensity. Troy also has the stronger offensive profile overall, averaging more than 80 points per game and showing strong rebounding ability. With Thomas Dowd playing well inside and the Trojans controlling the tempo, Troy should have the edge in this semifinal matchup.

Southern Miss vs Troy Total Pick

Over

I like the over in this matchup because both teams have demonstrated the ability to score efficiently. Southern Miss has been putting up strong offensive numbers throughout the tournament, including 86 points in the quarterfinal win over Appalachian State, while Troy averages over 80 points per game this season. With Troy’s fast-paced offense and Southern Miss already in rhythm offensively, I expect enough possessions and scoring chances for this total to go over.

Final Score Prediction: Troy Trojans 84, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 78

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