Texas-A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Picks and Predictions for Tuesday March 10 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/10/2026, 02:00 AM ET

The Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks meet in the Southland Tournament Semifinal on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at Townsley Law Arena in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPNU. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released for this matchup. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more tournament predictions and betting insights.

Islanders Carry Quarterfinal Momentum into the Semifinals

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi enters this Southland Tournament semifinal with an 18-14 overall record and a 13-9 mark in Southland Conference play. The Islanders advanced to this round after recently winning over New Orleans 74-61 in the quarterfinals. Over their last five games, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has recently won over East Texas A&M, recently won over Northwestern State, recently won over Southeastern Louisiana, and recently lost to McNeese late in the regular season.

The Islanders average 72.9 points per game while allowing 67.9 points per contest this season. They shoot 45% from the field, average 35.9 rebounds per game, and record 13.3 assists per contest. Defensively, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi produces 7.8 steals per game and 3.0 blocks, while maintaining one of the better defensive scoring numbers in the conference by holding opponents under 68 points per game.

In the quarterfinal victory over New Orleans, Daniel Michelini-Jackson dominated with 28 points and 8 rebounds, leading both the scoring and rebounding effort for the Islanders. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi shot an impressive 53% from the field and 53% from three-point range, while also winning the rebounding battle 41-29. However, the Islanders now face a quick turnaround after playing Monday, and fatigue could become a factor against a deeper Stephen F. Austin squad that comes into the semifinal well-rested.

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Lumberjacks Rested and Ready After First-Round Bye

Stephen F. Austin enters the Southland Tournament Semifinal with a 27-4 overall record and a dominant 20-2 conference record, earning a bye directly into this round. Over their last five games, the Lumberjacks have recently won over Incarnate Word, recently won over Houston Christian, recently lost to New Orleans, recently won over Nicholls, and recently won over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi during the regular season.

The Lumberjacks average 77.5 points per game while allowing just 65.9 points per contest, one of the strongest defensive profiles in the conference. They shoot 45% from the field, collect 38.1 rebounds per game, and average 13.9 assists per contest. Defensively, Stephen F. Austin records 6.9 steals and 3.7 blocks per game, and their rebounding edge has been a key factor in controlling games throughout the season.

In their most recent game, a 76-68 win over Incarnate Word, Lateef Patrick led the way with 28 points, shooting an efficient 8-of-11 from the field while going 6-of-6 at the free throw line. Chrishawn Christmas led the team with 9 rebounds, helping the Lumberjacks dominate the glass 39-28. That rebounding advantage combined with efficient perimeter shooting gives Stephen F. Austin a strong foundation heading into this semifinal matchup.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Pick

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Spread Pick

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -6.5

Stephen F. Austin holds multiple advantages entering this matchup, including rest, rebounding strength, and defensive efficiency. The Lumberjacks have already defeated Texas A&M-Corpus Christi earlier this season and have been one of the most consistent teams in the Southland Conference. With the Islanders coming off a game less than 24 hours earlier, fatigue and depth could play a major role. I expect Stephen F. Austin’s defense and rebounding edge to gradually take control of the game.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Total Pick

Under 142.5

I like the under in this semifinal matchup. Stephen F. Austin plays strong half-court defense and allows fewer than 66 points per game, while Texas A&M-Corpus Christi also brings a solid defensive profile. Tournament games often tighten up defensively, especially in the later rounds when possessions become more valuable. With the Islanders potentially slowing the pace after playing the previous day and the Lumberjacks comfortable grinding out possessions, I expect a lower-scoring game.

Final Score Prediction: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 74, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 64

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