The Citadel Bulldogs vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 7 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/07/2026, 04:05 AM ET

The Citadel Bulldogs and East Tennessee State Buccaneers meet in the SoCon Championship Quarterfinal on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN+. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. As you prepare for this matchup, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert analysis and daily predictions.

Citadel Bulldogs Look to Build on Tournament Momentum

The Citadel Bulldogs enter this SoCon tournament matchup with an 11-21 overall record and a 7-11 conference mark. The Bulldogs had to battle their way through the first round and advanced with an impressive 88-85 win over Chattanooga on Friday. Over their last five games, The Citadel has recently won over Chattanooga and Wofford, while recently losing to Furman, Chattanooga, and Samford.

Offensively, The Citadel averages 69.6 points per game, but defense has been an issue throughout the season as they allow 77.3 points per game. The Bulldogs shoot 42% from the field, pull down 33.2 rebounds per game, and average 12.5 assists per contest. On the defensive side, they generate 5.5 steals and 2.4 blocks per game, but consistent scoring runs from opponents have often put them in difficult positions.

In their opening-round victory, Sola Adebisi delivered a dominant performance, scoring 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting while also grabbing 7 rebounds. His ability to control the paint and finish around the rim was a major factor in the win. With a short turnaround between games, The Citadel will need another strong effort from Adebisi and efficient perimeter shooting after hitting 48% from three-point range against Chattanooga.

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East Tennessee State Buccaneers Ready After First-Round Bye

The East Tennessee State Buccaneers finished the regular season with a 21-10 overall record and a 13-5 SoCon record, earning a first-round bye in the tournament. ETSU enters this quarterfinal after recently losing to Mercer and Wofford, while recently winning over UNC Greensboro and Furman, and recently losing to Samford in overtime.

The Buccaneers have been one of the strongest teams in the conference statistically. They average 78.2 points per game while allowing only 68.9 points per game, demonstrating strong balance on both ends of the floor. ETSU shoots an impressive 49% from the field, collects 34.3 rebounds per game, and averages 14.5 assists. Defensively, they create problems with 8.8 steals per game and 3.4 blocks, often turning defense into easy transition opportunities.

In their most recent game, ETSU fell 82-76 to Mercer, but Blake Barkley led the way with 16 points on 6-of-13 shooting while also pulling down 5 rebounds. Meanwhile, Cam Morris III dominated the glass with 11 rebounds, including six offensive boards that helped ETSU generate second-chance opportunities. Despite the loss, the Buccaneers remain one of the most efficient offensive teams in the conference and now come into this game with extra rest thanks to the bye.

The Citadel vs East Tennessee State Pick

The Citadel vs East Tennessee State Spread Pick

Pick: East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Moneyline

East Tennessee State enters this matchup as the stronger overall team with a clear edge in efficiency on both ends of the floor. The Buccaneers average nearly nine more points per game than The Citadel while also allowing significantly fewer points defensively. The Citadel deserves credit for surviving the opening round, but playing on a short turnaround after an emotional win can be challenging, especially against a rested opponent. ETSU’s ability to shoot nearly 50% from the field and generate turnovers should allow them to control the tempo and gradually pull away.

The Citadel vs East Tennessee State Total Pick

Pick: Over

I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to score in recent games, particularly The Citadel, which just put up 88 points in the opening round. ETSU plays at a faster pace offensively and averages more than 78 points per game, while The Citadel’s defense has struggled all season, allowing over 77 points per contest. With the Bulldogs likely needing to push the tempo again and ETSU capable of scoring efficiently, this matchup sets up well for a higher-scoring game.

Final Score Prediction: East Tennessee State 82, The Citadel 73

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