UL Monroe Warhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats Picks & Prediction for Sunday December 28, 2025
Introduction
The UL Monroe Warhawks (3-10) travel to Manhattan to face the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) on Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET inside Bramlage Coliseum, streaming on ESPN+. Kansas State is laying a massive number at -31.5, with the total sitting around 167.5—so this one is less about “who wins” and more about whether K-State keeps the foot down long enough to cover, and what the pace looks like once the game tilts. Be ready for all the college action with our free college basketball picks.
UL Monroe Warhawks Preview – Can they score enough to avoid a runaway?
UL Monroe has struggled all season (3-10) and the overall profile shows why: they’re scoring 73.2 PPG but allowing 82.1 PPG, and they’re shooting 42% from the field. When you’re giving up 82 a night and you’re not particularly efficient yourself, it’s hard to survive long stretches against high-powered teams—especially on the road.
The recent form is also rough: three straight losses, including giving up 104 at Miami and 96 in a 2OT loss to South Alabama. That doesn’t automatically mean they’ll get steamrolled here, but it does underline the biggest issue in a matchup like this: defensive containment. If ULM can’t string together stops, Kansas State’s runs will come fast, and covering a number like +31.5 becomes a “backdoor only” scenario.
Offensively, ULM’s best chance to keep this respectable is riding MJ Russell (17.1 PPG) and finding enough scoring from the supporting cast to avoid the dreaded 6–8 minute scoring drought. Against a favorite, droughts are how you go from down 12 to down 28 in a blink.
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Kansas State Wildcats Preview – Elite tempo, big-time offence, and a cover question
Kansas State’s numbers are loud: 88.0 PPG, 50% shooting, and 19.2 assists per game. That combination (efficiency + ball movement) is exactly what turns “comfortable wins” into “halftime blowouts.” They also come in on a three-game win streak, and they’ve shown the ability to bury overmatched opponents—most notably a 108–49 win over Mississippi Valley State and a 106–76 win over South Dakota.
The star of the show is P.J. Haggerty (22.8 PPG), and he’s doing it efficiently (51.9% FG). When your lead scorer is both high-volume and efficient, it raises the floor dramatically—because you’re not relying on randomness to score. Kansas State can simply execute.
The one caution with spreads this huge is always the same: rotation + mindset. Even if K-State is up 24–28 at the break, the second half can turn into “get reps, stay healthy, drain clock,” which is exactly how underdogs sneak inside the number. So the handicap becomes: does Kansas State have enough second-unit scoring and defensive attention to maintain separation?
Matchup Keys That Decide the Spread
1) Kansas State’s early punch If Kansas State comes out sharp and turns this into a track meet early, UL Monroe is immediately playing from behind without the offensive efficiency to trade baskets. That’s how this gets ugly.
2) UL Monroe’s ability to limit live-ball mistakes Kansas State’s assist numbers suggest they’re getting good looks consistently, and when a team like that also gets transition chances, games can avalanche. ULM has to value possessions, even if they’re down.
3) The pace after halftime A total of 167.5 implies tempo. If Kansas State is still playing fast in the second half, it supports both a cover and an over. If they slow it down with a big lead, it becomes a race between margin and minutes.
Best Bets and Prediction
Best Pick: Kansas State -31.5 (Lean)
I’m leaning Kansas State -31.5, but I’m not pretending it’s comfortable—because huge spreads are more about coaching decisions than pure power rating. That said, the matchup points to Kansas State generating repeated high-quality looks (50% shooting, 19.2 assists), and UL Monroe’s defenc hasn’t shown it can absorb that kind of pressure (82.1 allowed, with recent games allowing 96+ multiple times).
If Kansas State plays even a normal first half, I expect them to build a lead that puts the cover in play. The key is whether the Wildcats keep scoring once the bench takes over. Given Kansas State has already produced a couple of “bury them” results this season, I’m willing to side with the favorite—just with the awareness that the backdoor is always lurking. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for UL Monroe with the Thrillz promo code. Make the most of your bets on Kansas State by using the sportsbook promos. Make sure when you place your Kansas State vs UL Monroe bet you are using the bet365 bonus code.
Total: Over 167.5 (Lean)
This number is big, but it’s big for a reason: Kansas State’s offensive pace/efficiency combo can do a lot of the work alone, and UL Monroe has been involved in games that fly past typical totals when the defense fails. The risk is a second half slowdown, but if UL Monroe contributes anything offensively, the over becomes live quickly.
Projected Score: Kansas State 102, UL Monroe 68
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