UMBC at Dayton — Picks & Prediction for Saturday, November 8, 2025
The UMBC Retrievers travel to Dayton to face the Flyers on Saturday, November 8, 2025, at UD Arena. Get in on all the action with our free college football picks.
Dayton Flyers Analysis
Dayton enters this matchup after a dominant home opener, and they appear to have momentum in their non-conference build.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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In the opener vs. Canisius: Dayton shot 52.9% from the field, 25.0% on three-pointers, grabbed 33 rebounds, and committed just 4 turnovers.
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Guard Javon Bennett scored 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting in 28 minutes.
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Team defense: In the opener they held Canisius to 36.0% shooting and forced 19 turnovers.
Strengths:
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Strong opening performance both offensively and defensively.
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Low turnover rate indicates good control of game pace.
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Home court advantage at UD Arena.
Weaknesses:
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Three-point shooting was weak (25%) in their opener.
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This is early season — depth and reserves may still be getting in sync.
UMBC Retrievers Analysis
UMBC showed promise in their opener, particularly on the offensive end, though questions remain about depth and consistency on the road.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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In the opener vs Penn State-York: UMBC shot 42.9% from the field, 39.3% from three, and out-rebounded the opponent while forcing multiple turnovers.
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Guard Jah’Likai King led the team with 23 points and 8 rebounds; he shot 8-of-15 from the field and 5-of-8 from three in that game.
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Key forward Josh Odunowo did not play in the opener; he averaged 11.1 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season.
Strengths:
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Good start shooting from three (39.3%) suggests offensive potential.
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They have new faces and some momentum from opener win.
Weaknesses:
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Playing on the road against a tougher opponent.
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Depth and experience may be stretched — missing key returners early.
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Opponent (Dayton) appears more prepared and controlling turnover margin.
Standout Players & Key Notes
Dayton:
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Javon Bennett: Scoring engine and efficient in opener — expect him to carry offensive load.
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Dayton’s defense and low turnovers will be key: if they control pace and possessions, they should dominate.
UMBC:
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Jah’Likai King: Needs to replicate his opener output and help offset the road disadvantage.
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Josh Odunowo’s absence early season is a concern; his return could change dynamics but hasn’t yet factored in.
UMBC vs Dayton Prediction Reasoning
Dayton appears to have the upper hand given their opening-game dominance, home court, and efficiency in multiple metrics. UMBC showed promise and has legitimate talent. The spread is just too wide here.
Final Score Projection: Dayton 80, UMBC 70
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Best Picks
- UBMC +23.5
- Under 152.5 total points
