Utah State Aggies vs Arizona Wildcats Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 22 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/22/2026, 01:15 AM ET

The Utah State Aggies and Arizona Wildcats meet in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship – West Region – 2nd Round at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California, on Sunday, March 22, 2026, at 7:50 PM ET, with the game airing on truTV. Arizona enters this matchup as an 11.5-point favorite with the total set at 154.5. This game features a surging Utah State team riding a long winning streak against one of the most dominant teams in the country in Arizona. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert tournament analysis.

Utah State Aggies: Confidence and Efficiency on Display

Utah State enters this matchup with a 29-6 overall record and an impressive 18-5 mark in Mountain West play, showing consistency throughout the season. In tournament action, the Aggies advanced with an 86-76 win over Villanova. Looking at recent form, Utah State has recently won over Villanova, recently won over San Diego State, recently won over Nevada, recently won over UNLV, and recently won over New Mexico. This five-game winning streak highlights a team playing with confidence and momentum at the right time.

From a statistical standpoint, Utah State averages 82.6 points per game while allowing 70.5 points. They shoot an efficient 50% from the field and average 34.7 rebounds and 17.7 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 8.7 steals and 2.8 blocks per contest, showing their ability to create turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses. Their balanced offensive attack and ability to move the ball efficiently make them a tough matchup when they are playing at their best.

In their first-round win, Utah State showcased both offensive efficiency and composure. Mason Falslev led the team with 22 points and also pulled down 7 rebounds, leading the Aggies in both scoring and rebounding. Utah State shot an impressive 55% from the field and dominated the rebounding battle 37-27, which was key to controlling the game. However, they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 13% of their three-point attempts. That inconsistency from deep could be a concern against a high-powered Arizona team, especially on a short turnaround where shooting legs can become a factor.

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Arizona Wildcats: A Complete Team with Championship Potential

Arizona enters this game with a dominant 33-2 overall record and a 19-2 mark in Big 12 play, making them one of the top contenders in the tournament. The Wildcats advanced with a 92-58 blowout win over Long Island University in the first round. Over their last five games, Arizona has recently won over Long Island University, recently won over Houston, recently won over Iowa State, recently won over UCF, and recently won over Colorado. This winning streak demonstrates their ability to consistently perform at a high level against both elite and lesser competition.

Statistically, Arizona is one of the most explosive teams in the field, averaging 86.3 points per game while allowing 68.5. They shoot 50% from the field and dominate the glass with 42.8 rebounds per game. The Wildcats also average 16.9 assists and contribute 7.7 steals and 4.4 blocks per contest, showing their ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor. Their rebounding advantage is particularly significant, as it often leads to second-chance opportunities and control of the game’s tempo.

In their opening-round performance, Arizona displayed their depth and efficiency. Brayden Burries led the team with 18 points, while Ivan Kharchenkov controlled the boards with 10 rebounds. The Wildcats shot 53% from the field and outrebounded their opponent 52-31, completely dominating the interior. Their ability to score efficiently while also controlling the glass makes them extremely difficult to beat. If Arizona continues to play at this level, they will be a tough matchup for any team, including a confident Utah State squad.

Utah State Aggies vs Arizona Wildcats Pick

Utah State Aggies vs Arizona Wildcats Spread Pick

Pick: Arizona -11.5

Arizona’s size, depth, and rebounding advantage create a difficult matchup for Utah State. While the Aggies are playing well and have shown strong offensive efficiency, Arizona’s ability to control the boards and score at a high level should eventually wear them down. The Wildcats have been dominant in recent games, and their balanced attack makes them capable of pulling away late. I expect Arizona to dictate tempo and cover the spread in this matchup.

Utah State Aggies vs Arizona Wildcats Total Pick

Pick: Over 154.5

I like the over in this game because both teams have shown they can score efficiently, and Arizona in particular plays at a fast pace. Utah State averages over 80 points per game and should contribute enough offense to keep this total moving, even against a strong defense. I expect Arizona to push the tempo and create more possessions, which should lead to a higher-scoring game overall.

Final Score Prediction: Arizona 88, Utah State 74

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