UTEP Miners vs. New Mexico State Aggies Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 21, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 02/21/2026, 01:30 AM ET

The Conference USA race is tight in the middle, and this matchup in Las Cruces carries weight for two teams trying to climb out of the bottom half. UTEP sits at 10-16 overall and 6-9 in conference play, while New Mexico State is 12-13 and 5-10 in CUSA. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET at the Pan American Center, with ESPN+ carrying the broadcast. The Aggies are heavy favorites according to the matchup predictor. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

UTEP Preview

UTEP comes in after a 73-64 loss to Liberty and is 5-5 over the last 10 games. The Miners average 69.8 points per game and shoot 43 percent from the field. Elijah Jones leads the way with 14.3 points per game, and Caleb Blackwell has been a perimeter threat, hitting 2.2 threes per game over the last 10. UTEP protects the ball reasonably well at 10.9 turnovers per contest and is 6-7 when winning the turnover battle. Rebounding has been an issue at 32.8 boards per game, which could matter against a bigger Aggies front line.

New Mexico State Preview

New Mexico State just picked up a 79-70 road win over Jacksonville State and has gone 7-5 at home this season. The Aggies score 75.8 points per game, a clear edge over UTEP’s offensive average. Jemel Jones leads New Mexico State with 16.9 points per game on 43.6 percent shooting, while Julius Mims anchors the glass with 9.1 rebounds per game. The Aggies also hold opponents to 71.1 points per game and average 37.6 rebounds, giving them a plus matchup on the boards.

UTEP vs New Mexico State Prediction

These teams met on February 7, and UTEP escaped with a 91-88 overtime win. That game was played at a faster pace than both teams typically prefer. New Mexico State shoots 43.8 percent from the field, just below the 44.8 percent UTEP allows, so margins are thin. The difference here could be rebounding and home court, where the Aggies have been more consistent.

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Prediction: New Mexico State 78, UTEP 72

New Mexico State’s scoring balance and rebounding edge should show up late. The Aggies are more productive offensively and now get UTEP at home after losing in overtime on the road.

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