UTSA Roadrunners at Memphis Tigers, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 18, 2026
The UTSA Roadrunners (4-13, 0-5 American Athletic Conference) visit the Memphis Tigers (8-8, 3-1 AAC) on Sunday, January 18, 2026 at FedExForum in Memphis, TN. Get in on the action with our free NCAAB picks.
UTSA Roadrunners Analysis
UTSA comes in with a tough record and a road challenge against a tougher Tiger squad. The Roadrunners haven’t recorded a conference win yet, and their offensive efficiency has lagged, averaging roughly 68.5 points per game, with UTSA allowing about 78.2 points per contest.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 68.5
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Opp PPG: 78.2
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FG%: 38%
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RPG: 37.9
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APG: 11.2
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Turnovers: 13.7 per game
Strengths
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Jamir Simpson: The young guard leads UTSA with 15.9 PPG, giving the Roadrunners a reliable primary scorer.
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Ball pressure: UTSA forces turnovers (11.8 forced per game), creating transition opportunities.
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Rebounding effort: Roadrunners pull down nearly 38 boards per game, which can help limit second-chance points.
Weaknesses
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Offensive consistency: UTSA’s scoring dips especially against defensive pressure.
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Shooting efficiency: Below-average field-goal and three-point percentages hamper spacing.
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Conference struggles: 0-5 in AAC play reflects difficulties adjusting to league defenses.
Memphis Tigers Analysis
Memphis enters as one of the more efficient mid-major teams in the AAC, posting 73.2 ppg while allowing about 72.9 ppg, with a balanced attack and solid rebounding. The Tigers shoot 42.6% from the field, have an active defense that produces 14.1 turnovers forced per game, and crash the offensive glass consistently.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 73.2
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Opp PPG: 72.9
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FG%: 42.6%
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3P %: 32.2%
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Rebounds: 37.2
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Assists: 14.0
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Steals: 9.5 per game
Strengths
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Dug McDaniel (G): Memphis’ leading scorer at 13.8 PPG also contributes 4.9 APG and 2.9 SPG, a catalyst on both ends.
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Balanced offense: Role players like Sincere Parker (9.1 PPG) provide scoring depth off the bench.
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Rebounding & forcing turnovers: Active boards and defensive pressure generate extra chances.
Weaknesses
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Three-point consistency: Memphis’ outside shooting sits around 32.2%, which can lag in offensive droughts.
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Turnovers: The Tigers average 13.7 giveaways, which can fuel transition points for opportunistic teams.
Standout Players and Key Matchups
UTSA
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Jamir Simpson (G): Primary scoring option with 15.9 PPG, critical for UTSA’s chances.
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Kaidon Rayfield (F): Contributes on the boards (3.8 DRPG) and finishes around the rim.
Memphis
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Dug McDaniel (G): Team leader in scoring (13.8 PPG) and assists (4.9), driving offense.
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Julius Thedford (F): Rebounding presence at about 5.4 RPG.
Memphis vs UTSA Prediction Reasoning
Memphis holds a clear statistical advantage with a more efficient offense and rebounding edge, especially at home. UTSA’s struggles in AAC play and below-average shooting efficiency have translated to difficulty staying competitive, whereas Memphis’ balanced attack and ability to force turnovers support control of tempo.
Final Score Projection: Memphis 78, UTSA 66
Best Picks
- UTSA +21.5
- Under 146.5 total points
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