Vermont Catamounts vs UMBC Retrievers Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 14 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 03/14/2026, 01:05 AM ET

The Vermont Catamounts travel to face the UMBC Retrievers in the America East Playoffs Final on Saturday, March 14, 2026, at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, Maryland. Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 AM ET with television coverage on ESPN2. At the time of this writing, UMBC is favored by -2.5 with a game total set at 137.5, while Vermont is listed at +120 on the moneyline and UMBC at -142. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily betting insights and predictions.

Catamounts Riding Momentum Into the Championship

The Vermont Catamounts enter the America East Championship with a 22-11 overall record and a 12-4 conference record, having put together an impressive run to reach the final. Vermont advanced through the semifinals after recently winning over NJIT 63-54. The Catamounts have been in strong form lately, recently winning over NJIT, Bryant, Albany, UMass Lowell, and NJIT again during a five-game winning streak that has carried them into this championship matchup.

Vermont has been a balanced team throughout the season, averaging 73.8 points per game while allowing 68.4 points per game. The Catamounts shoot 46% from the field and average 34.9 rebounds per game along with 12.9 assists per contest. Defensively they have been solid as well, contributing 2.9 blocks and 4.7 steals per game, showing their ability to protect the rim while also forcing turnovers.

In their semifinal victory over NJIT, Vermont leaned on a steady performance from Sean Blake, who led the team with 14 points and also contributed five rebounds, making him both the leading scorer and rebounder in that game. Vermont’s ability to control tempo and win the rebounding battle was key in that matchup, and their defensive intensity will be important again on a short turnaround as they attempt to slow down a high-scoring UMBC offense.

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Retrievers Look to Finish Dominant Tournament Run

The UMBC Retrievers enter the championship game with a 23-8 overall record and a 14-2 conference mark, establishing themselves as one of the most consistent teams in the America East this season. UMBC advanced to the final with an emphatic 91-69 semifinal victory over UMass Lowell. The Retrievers are currently riding a strong stretch of play, having recently won over UMass Lowell twice, New Hampshire, NJIT, and Bryant.

Offensively, UMBC has been slightly more productive than Vermont, averaging 76.3 points per game while allowing just 67.3 points per game. The Retrievers shoot 47% from the field and average 35.6 rebounds per game, while also contributing 12.4 assists per game as a team. Defensively they add 5.1 steals and 2.5 blocks per game, showing an aggressive defensive approach that can disrupt opposing offenses.

In their semifinal win over UMass Lowell, Jah'Likai King delivered a standout performance with 24 points, leading all scorers in the game. On the glass, Jose Roberto Tanchyn dominated with 11 rebounds, helping UMBC control the interior and maintain offensive possessions. With strong shooting and balanced rebounding in that matchup, UMBC demonstrated the offensive efficiency and depth that make them dangerous in the championship setting.

Vermont vs UMBC Pick

Vermont vs UMBC Spread Pick

Pick: UMBC -2.5

UMBC enters this matchup with the slightly stronger overall resume and a more explosive offense. The Retrievers showed just how dangerous they can be offensively in the semifinal round, shooting 54% from the field while scoring 91 points. Vermont’s defense is capable of slowing games down, but UMBC’s depth and scoring efficiency should allow them to create enough separation late in the game to cover the small spread.

Vermont vs UMBC Total Pick

Pick: Over 137.5

I like the over in this matchup because UMBC’s offense has been extremely efficient lately, especially in the semifinal where they shot over 50% from the field and scored 91 points. Vermont plays a more controlled style, but their offense has been consistent enough to contribute scoring as well. With championship pressure sometimes leading to faster pace and transition opportunities, I expect both teams to find scoring runs that push this game past the total.

Final Score Prediction: UMBC 74, Vermont 68

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