Delaware vs Western Kentucky Picks and Predictions for Tuesday October 27 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 02:06 PM ET

There’s something about laying points with a 3-4 team on the road that makes me want to check my wallet. Delaware is favored at Western Kentucky, and I can see why the oddsmakers went that direction. The Blue Hens have been moving the ball through the air, while the Hilltoppers have had trouble scoring against just about anybody with a decent defense. But here’s the problem. Delaware hasn’t been particularly good defending the pass either. If Western Kentucky can’t get its offense going in this matchup, when exactly is it going to happen?

Delaware travels to Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Delaware is favored by 2.5 points, with the total available around 58.5 to 59.5. The forecast calls for temperatures around 66 degrees, little wind, and virtually no rain. That’s about as good as you can ask for in late October. Weather shouldn’t be an excuse for either offense. Be ready for all the college football action with our free college football picks.

Delaware Has Been Living Through the Air

Delaware is 3-4 overall and 1-2 on the road. The Blue Hens just beat Missouri State 61-38, which is a pretty impressive offensive performance until you remember they also gave up 38 points. Before that, they lost 33-30 at Middle Tennessee. That’s 91 points scored in two games and 71 allowed. If you’re looking for a team that’s going to grind out a 17-13 win, Delaware probably isn’t your first choice. The Blue Hens can move the ball, but they keep putting their defense in difficult situations.

Delaware averages 268 passing yards per game, ranking among the top third of the country. The rushing game isn’t nearly as productive at 113.7 yards per contest. That means the Blue Hens need their passing attack to work, and Western Kentucky has actually been pretty good defending the pass. The Hilltoppers allow only 190.9 passing yards per game. That’s a matchup worth watching. Delaware also struggles on third down, converting only 33% of its chances. The Blue Hens have to avoid getting behind the chains, because Western Kentucky has been one of the better third-down defenses in Conference USA.

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The good news for Delaware is that Western Kentucky hasn’t been particularly good against the run. The Hilltoppers allow 184.1 rushing yards per game, and that might give the Blue Hens an opportunity to establish some balance. Delaware doesn’t have to suddenly become a power-running team. It just needs enough success on the ground to keep Western Kentucky from sitting back against the pass. The Blue Hens have also been pretty good in the red zone, scoring on 88.5% of their trips. That’s important in a game where both teams have had trouble getting stops.

Western Kentucky Needs Its Offense to Show Up

Western Kentucky is 3-4 overall, but the Hilltoppers have won both of their home games. That’s worth remembering before dismissing them as a losing team. They also come into Tuesday with consecutive wins over Missouri State and Sam Houston, holding those opponents to 13 and three points. The defense has been much better lately. The offense, however, remains a problem. Western Kentucky scored only 16 against Sam Houston, and the Hilltoppers are averaging 21.3 points for the season. That’s not much room for error when you’re facing a Delaware offense capable of putting up big numbers.

The Hilltoppers average 218.4 passing yards and 135.1 rushing yards per game. Neither number is particularly impressive, but Delaware’s pass defense offers an opportunity. The Blue Hens allow 270.3 yards through the air, one of the worst marks in the country. Western Kentucky needs to attack that weakness instead of spending the entire night trying to establish a running game against a defense allowing only 126.1 rushing yards. The Hilltoppers have also struggled in the red zone defensively, allowing opponents to score on more than 95% of their trips. That’s a dangerous weakness against a Delaware team that has been efficient near the goal line.

Western Kentucky’s biggest advantage is its recent defensive form. Holding Missouri State and Sam Houston to 16 combined points is no small accomplishment, and the Hilltoppers have been much better at getting off the field on third down. The question is whether that defense can handle Delaware’s passing game. The Blue Hens just scored 61 against Missouri State, and Western Kentucky isn’t going to win this game by scoring 16 again. The Hilltoppers need to be more aggressive offensively, particularly through the air. If they can get into the high 20s, I like their chances.

Delaware vs Western Kentucky Picks and Predictions

Western Kentucky +2.5

I’ll take Western Kentucky getting 2.5 points at home. Delaware has the more productive offense, and the Blue Hens are capable of putting up 30 or more against this defense. But Western Kentucky has won two straight, its defense is improving, and the Hilltoppers have been good at home. Delaware’s pass defense is giving up 270 yards per game, which should give Western Kentucky opportunities to move the ball. The concern is obvious. The Hilltoppers have scored only 21.3 points per game, and they could struggle to keep up if Delaware starts hitting big plays. But I think Western Kentucky’s defense does enough to keep this close, and the home field makes the difference. I’ll take the points.

Under 59.5

I’m going under 59.5. Delaware just played a 99-point game against Missouri State, so I understand why the total is high. But Western Kentucky has been much better defensively lately, allowing only 16 points over its last two games. The Hilltoppers also haven’t been scoring much themselves. Delaware’s passing game could certainly create problems, and Western Kentucky should find opportunities against that weak pass defense. Still, I don’t think both teams are going to get into the 30s. Western Kentucky has been playing better defense than its season average suggests, and I expect that to keep the score more reasonable. Something around 28-27 makes sense.

Final Picks: Western Kentucky +2.5 and Under 59.5