Iowa State vs. TCU Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 8, 2025

By: Jake Allman Updated 11/08/2025, 01:53 AM ET

The Big 12 race tightens up as Iowa State visits TCU in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs are 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play, trying to keep pace in the title picture. Iowa State sits at 5-4 and needs a win to stay bowl-eligible after dropping four straight. Kickoff is at 3:30 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium, with FOX carrying the broadcast. Every matchup matters—see who’s favored in our expert college football picks.

Iowa State Preview

Iowa State’s recent stretch has been rough, losing consecutive games to Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Cincinnati. Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,933 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, while struggling with turnovers against top defenses. Running back Abu Sama III provides balance with 544 yards on 101 carries and four scores, while Brett Eskildsen has been a steady target, hauling in 21 passes for 409 yards and three touchdowns. The Cyclones have the offensive pieces, but have struggled to finish drives and sustain momentum in the second half of games. They’ll need to find consistency in the red zone to stay competitive.

Iowa State’s pass rush has relied on linebacker Will McLaughlin, who leads the team with two sacks. Marcus Neal Jr. anchors the unit with 54 tackles, but the Cyclones have been inconsistent against the run. Several injuries could impact the defense, including question marks around linebacker Brody Goodwin and multiple cornerbacks. That lack of depth in the secondary could become a problem against TCU’s passing attack, one of the most efficient in the conference.

TCU Preview

TCU enters this matchup with confidence after back-to-back wins over West Virginia and Baylor. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been excellent, throwing for 2,371 yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His connection with wide receiver Eric McAlister, who has 727 yards and eight touchdowns, has been a big part of the Horned Frogs’ offensive success. Running back Kevorian Barnes adds 418 yards and three scores on the ground, giving TCU balance and versatility. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 23 points in six of eight games, showing the ability to move the ball efficiently through the air and on the ground.

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Linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr is the heartbeat of TCU’s defense, leading the team with 80 tackles and four sacks. His presence in the middle has stabilized a unit that struggled early in the year against mobile quarterbacks. TCU’s defense has improved in recent weeks, limiting opponents to 21 points or fewer in three of the last four games. The health of key defenders like Elarms-Orr will be vital as TCU tries to pressure Becht and disrupt Iowa State’s passing rhythm.

TCU vs Iowa State Prediction

TCU’s balanced offense and home-field advantage should carry them past an Iowa State team that has faded down the stretch. The Horned Frogs have more stability at quarterback and a stronger defense, while the Cyclones’ injuries and turnover issues continue to hold them back. Expect Hoover to exploit Iowa State’s secondary with multiple big plays to McAlister.

Final Score: TCU 34, Iowa State 20