James Madison at Texas State Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, October 28, 2025
The Dukes (6–1, 4–0 in the Sun Belt Conference) travel to San Marcos to face the Bobcats (3–4, 0–3 Sun Belt) on Tuesday night at 8 PM ET (7 PM CT) at UFCU Stadium. Get in on all the action with our free college football picks.
James Madison Dukes Analysis
The Dukes have built a strong season so far, especially defensively, and enter this matchup as favorites.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Offensively, JMU averages 32.3 points per game (rank 47th) and totals 432.3 yards per game (rank ~ 35th).
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Their rushing attack has been particularly effective: 243.7 rushing yards per game (top 10 nationally).
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Defensively, the Dukes have been elite: allowing only 15.6 points per game (rank 14th), 74.3 rushing yards per game (2nd), and 162.7 passing yards per game (13th).
Strengths: Elite defense, excellent rushing attack, conference record Weaknesses: They average only ~ 188.6 passing yards per game (rank 106th) meaning they may struggle if forced into a heavy passing game.
Texas State Bobcats Analysis
Texas State comes in as underdogs. They have offensive firepower but serious defensive concerns.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Offensively, the Bobcats average 36.1 points per game (rank 39th) and 257.1 passing yards per game (rank 39th).
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Rushing they register 230.7 yards per game (rank 10th).
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Defensively, however, they allow 31.3 points per game (117th), 162.7 rushing yards per game (96th) and 242.1 passing yards per game (101st).
Strengths: Balanced offense (run + pass) and ability to generate yards Weaknesses: Defensive consistency, especially running defense, and poor conference record.
Standout Players & Key Notes
JMU:
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The rushing attack will be key: if JMU establishes run early, they force Texas State into uncomfortable passing situations.
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Their defense: shutting down the run has been a specialty; this matchup gives them a chance to dominate time-of-possession.
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Passing game: while not elite, if the Bobcats load up to stop the run, JMU’s controlled passing can exploit that.
Texas State:
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The ground game: must perform to keep JMU’s defense honest, else the Dukes will load the box.
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Passing offense: needs to convert on third-downs and generate explosive plays because their defense may give up scores.
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Defensive pressure: if Texas State can force JMU out of its comfort zone (rush heavy), they may keep the game closer.
James Madison vs Texas State Prediction Reasoning
This matchup tilts heavily toward JMU. Their defense is among the best in the conference and nation, and Texas State’s defensive vulnerabilities align poorly with JMU’s strengths. While the Bobcats have offensive weapons, the Dukes’ ability to control tempo (especially via the run) gives them the advantage.
We like the Dukes.
Final Score Projection: JMU 30, Texas State 21
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Best Picks
- JMU -7
- Under 55.5 total points
