Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 07:02 PM ET

Kennesaw State has lost six straight games, but I wouldn’t lump all six together. The Owls lost to Jacksonville State by one, Missouri State by three, and Arkansas State by three. Then Liberty showed up and beat them 34-6. That’s the kind of loss that makes you wonder whether a team is finally running out of fight. Middle Tennessee has won two straight and hasn’t lost at home this season. The Blue Raiders aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but they’ve been finding ways to win. This looks like a good spot for them.

Kennesaw State visits Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Middle Tennessee is favored by 3.5 points, with the total at 50.5. I haven’t verified a dependable game-time forecast yet, so weather remains a final publication check. Keep up with the college football action with our free college football picks.

Kennesaw State Has Been Close, But Close Doesn’t Count

Kennesaw State is 1-6 overall and 0-3 on the road. The Owls opened the season with a 47-0 win over West Georgia and haven’t won since. They’ve had chances, though. They lost 17-14 at Arkansas State, 27-26 to Jacksonville State, and 24-21 at Missouri State. That’s three games decided by seven combined points. Then Liberty came to town and won 34-6. Kennesaw State has been competitive against several Conference USA opponents, but the Owls have struggled to finish games. Now they have to go into a stadium where Middle Tennessee is 3-0.

Kennesaw State averages roughly 20 points per game and allows about 25. The Owls are producing close to 370 yards of offense, including 226 through the air and 144 on the ground. Those numbers aren’t terrible for a one-win team. The bigger problem is consistency. Kennesaw State has scored 26 against Jacksonville State and 21 against Missouri State, then managed only six against Liberty. The Owls have been better on third down than Middle Tennessee, converting around 41% of their chances. That’s something they need to exploit Wednesday. If they can sustain drives and keep the Blue Raiders’ offense on the sideline, they’ve got a chance.

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Kennesaw State has also been reasonably careful with the football, carrying a positive turnover margin. The defense hasn’t been dominant, but it’s been better than Middle Tennessee’s in several categories. The Owls allow about 5.6 yards per play, while the Blue Raiders give up around 6.3. That’s a meaningful difference. The problem is that Kennesaw State hasn’t been getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Owls have only six sacks, and that’s not going to make life particularly difficult for Middle Tennessee. They need to force mistakes rather than wait for the Blue Raiders to make them.

Middle Tennessee Has Been Getting the Job Done at Home

Middle Tennessee is 4-3 overall and 3-0 at home. The Blue Raiders have won two straight, beating Delaware 33-30 and Florida International 26-23. Neither game was particularly comfortable, but a win is a win. Middle Tennessee has also beaten Nevada and Murray State at home, and that’s where the Blue Raiders have been at their best. They haven’t been particularly impressive away from Murfreesboro, going 1-3 on the road. But this game is at home, and that’s a pretty important difference.

Middle Tennessee averages 23.3 points and allows 27.6. The Blue Raiders are producing 339.6 yards per game, including 200.6 passing and 139 rushing. Those numbers aren’t going to scare anybody. They also convert only 25.6% of their third downs, which is one of the worst marks in the country. That’s a problem against a Kennesaw State team that has been pretty good at staying on schedule offensively. Middle Tennessee needs to avoid third-and-long situations and keep its running game involved. The Blue Raiders have been more productive lately, scoring 33 and 26 in their last two games, but they still aren’t a team I’d trust to score 40.

The Blue Raiders have been winning the turnover battle, and that’s a big reason they’ve managed four victories despite their offensive struggles. Middle Tennessee is plus-five in turnover margin, one of the better marks nationally. The defense gives up too many yards per play, but it has been able to create enough mistakes to survive. Against Kennesaw State, the Blue Raiders need to get pressure on the quarterback and force the Owls into difficult third downs. Middle Tennessee has only seven sacks, so that might be easier said than done. But the home-field advantage is real, and the Blue Raiders have been finding ways to win close games.

Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Picks and Predictions

Middle Tennessee -3.5

I’ll lay 3.5 with Middle Tennessee, although I wouldn’t go much higher. Kennesaw State has been competitive in several losses, and the Owls have better offensive numbers than their record suggests. But Middle Tennessee is 3-0 at home and has won two straight close games. The Blue Raiders have been better at creating turnovers, and that could be the difference in a matchup between two inconsistent offenses. The concern is Kennesaw State’s third-down efficiency. If the Owls keep moving the chains, Middle Tennessee could have trouble pulling away. Still, I think the Blue Raiders find a way to win by a touchdown at home.

Under 50.5

I’m going under 50.5. Neither team has been particularly explosive offensively, and Middle Tennessee converts only about a quarter of its third downs. Kennesaw State just scored six against Liberty, and the Owls have struggled to finish drives throughout the season. Middle Tennessee has been scoring better lately, but I don’t expect the Blue Raiders to suddenly put up 35 or 40. The danger is turnovers creating short fields, which has been one of Middle Tennessee’s strengths. But I think both teams spend plenty of time punting, and something around 27-20 makes sense.

Final Picks: Middle Tennessee -3.5 and Under 50.5