Michigan vs Rutgers Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 07:50 PM ET

Michigan just spent an afternoon trying to score against Indiana and came away with six points. Six. At home. Now the Wolverines are supposed to head into New Jersey and cover two touchdowns against Rutgers? I can see why Michigan is favored, because the Scarlet Knights just got smacked around by Northwestern. But there’s a difference between being the better football team and being worth fourteen points on the road. Michigan hasn’t exactly been making life easy for anybody holding its betting ticket. Be ready for all the college football action with our free college football picks.

The Wolverines visit SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network. Michigan is favored by roughly 14 to 14.5 points, with the total at 47.5. The early forecast calls for temperatures around 65 degrees, winds near 6 mph, and little chance of rain. Good conditions for football, although the forecast should be checked again closer to Saturday.

Michigan Has to Find Something Resembling an Offense

Michigan is 4-3 overall and 1-3 in Big Ten play after losing 13-6 to Indiana in overtime. That makes three losses in four conference games, and the Wolverines haven’t scored more than 21 points against a Big Ten opponent this season. They beat Penn State 21-18 the previous week, but even that victory wasn’t particularly convincing offensively. Michigan is 0-1 away from home after losing 20-14 at Minnesota earlier this month. The Wolverines have enough talent to win this matchup, but their offense has been making every game harder than it needs to be.

Michigan has scored 13, 17, 52, 19, 14, 21, and six points through seven games. Take away the 52 against UTEP and this offense hasn’t shown much explosiveness. The Wolverines have been relying on their defense to keep games close, and that’s a dangerous approach when you’re laying two touchdowns. Indiana held Michigan to six points Saturday, while Iowa and Minnesota also kept the Wolverines under 20. Rutgers has been terrible defensively at times, so Michigan should find more room than it did against Indiana. But I don’t see much evidence that the Wolverines are suddenly going to become a 40-point offense.

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The defense is the reason Michigan should win. The Wolverines held Indiana to 13 points, Penn State to 18, and Oklahoma to ten earlier this season. That’s a pretty respectable collection of performances. Rutgers has been capable of moving the ball through the air, but the Scarlet Knights have also been inconsistent and turnover-prone. Michigan needs to get pressure on the quarterback and avoid giving up big plays. If the Wolverines can force Rutgers into obvious passing situations, they should control the game. The question is whether the offense can do enough to turn that control into a comfortable victory.

Rutgers Has Been Getting Beaten Up Defensively

Rutgers is 2-5 overall after losing 42-14 at Northwestern. The Scarlet Knights had finally won a conference game at Maryland the previous week, 37-30, but Northwestern brought them right back to earth. Rutgers allowed 21 points in the first quarter and trailed 28-6 at halftime. That’s not the kind of start you want against anybody, particularly when you’re heading home to face Michigan. The Scarlet Knights have lost three of their last four, and their defense has been the biggest problem.

Rutgers has allowed 37 to UMass, 42 to USC, 47 to Indiana, and 42 to Northwestern. That’s four games surrendering at least 37 points. The Scarlet Knights have struggled to defend both the run and the pass, and opponents have been able to create explosive plays without much resistance. Michigan isn’t nearly as productive offensively as some of those teams, but the Wolverines should still be able to establish the run. Rutgers needs to tackle better and stop giving opponents short fields. If the Scarlet Knights let Michigan control the line of scrimmage, they’re going to spend most of the afternoon defending.

Rutgers does have some offensive ability. The Scarlet Knights scored 35 against USC and 37 at Maryland, so they aren’t completely helpless with the football. The problem is consistency. They managed only 14 against Northwestern and 15 against Indiana. Michigan’s defense is much closer to Indiana’s than Maryland’s, which makes this a difficult assignment. Rutgers needs to avoid turnovers and find a way to sustain drives. A couple of explosive plays could make this interesting, but the Scarlet Knights can’t afford another first quarter like the one they played at Northwestern.

Michigan vs Rutgers Picks and Predictions

Rutgers +14.5

I’ll take Rutgers getting 14.5 points. Michigan is the better team, and I expect the Wolverines to win. But we’re talking about an offense that just scored six points and hasn’t reached 22 against a Big Ten opponent all season. That’s not the kind of favorite I enjoy laying two touchdowns with. Rutgers has been terrible defensively, and that’s the obvious concern. Michigan could establish the run and control the game from start to finish. But I think the Scarlet Knights can score enough at home to make this uncomfortable. A 27-17 Michigan victory wouldn’t surprise me.

Under 47.5

I’m taking Under 47.5. Michigan’s defense has been much better than its offense, and I expect the Wolverines to lean on that advantage. Rutgers has allowed plenty of points, but Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to turn defensive weaknesses into huge offensive performances against conference opponents. The Scarlet Knights should struggle to move the ball consistently against this defense, and Michigan will probably be content to run the football if it gets ahead. The danger is Rutgers turnovers giving Michigan short fields. But I think this game spends more time in the trenches than in the end zones.

Final Picks: Rutgers +14.5 and Under 47.5