Mississippi State vs Texas Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 08:07 PM ET

I'd probably pick Texas to win this game ten times out of ten. The Longhorns have a good defense, they're playing in Austin, and Mississippi State has spent the last three weeks finding new ways to lose football games. But there's something about that 20.5-point spread I don't like. Texas just had Ole Miss down 28-7 at halftime and barely escaped with a 34-27 win. That's the kind of thing that makes you think twice about laying three touchdowns. The Longhorns can beat Mississippi State without coming anywhere close to covering this number. The college football season is in full swing so you should make sure you are ready for all the games with our free college football picks.

Mississippi State visits No. 11 Texas at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. Texas is favored by 20.5 points, with the total at 50.5. Early forecasts have the temperature around 77 degrees, with light winds and little chance of rain. Weather shouldn't be much of a problem for either offense.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Need to Run the Football

Mississippi State is 4-3 overall and 2-1 on the road. The Bulldogs started 4-0, and I'll admit I thought they might be turning things around. Then Alabama came to Starkville and beat them 56-23. LSU shut them out the following week, and Oklahoma handed them another loss Saturday, 23-15. That's three straight defeats. The Oklahoma game was at least competitive. Mississippi State moved the ball at times, but turnovers and a few wasted possessions kept the Bulldogs from doing much with it. You can't keep making those mistakes against SEC teams and expect to win.

The season averages say Mississippi State scores 30 points and gains nearly 440 yards a game. That's fine until you remember how much of that production came during the four-game winning streak. The offense hasn't looked anything like that lately. Texas is giving up only 19.1 points and 285 yards per game, so Mississippi State probably isn't going to have a big night throwing the ball. The Bulldogs do average 175 rushing yards, though, and that's where I'd start. Keep the ball on the ground, try to get four or five yards on first down, and make Texas work for every possession. Mississippi State's own defense allows 27.7 points a game and has been especially vulnerable against the pass. I don't expect the Bulldogs to shut Texas down. They just need to avoid letting the Longhorns score every time they touch the ball.

Subscribe Now

I authorize Picks And Parlays to send me promotional emails

I understand that I can unsubscribe at any time. I have read and accepted the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy. I consent that Picks And Parlays may use third-party services to process my data.

Terms & Conditions

Kamario Taylor's foot injury is a real problem. He's thrown for 1,460 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, but he aggravated the injury against Oklahoma and left after the first quarter. Jeff Lebby said Monday that the staff needed another couple of days before it would know whether Taylor could play. Billy Puckett came in against Oklahoma and threw for 158 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He also lost a fumble. That's the sort of mistake that could bury Mississippi State early in Austin. The better news is Fluff Bothwell. He came back from his foot injury and ran for 111 yards on 17 carries against Oklahoma. Bothwell has 514 rushing yards this season, and I'd expect Mississippi State to feed him the ball if Taylor can't go. Starting linebacker Jalen Smith is also out for the season, which leaves another hole on defense.

Texas Longhorns Should Win, but I Don't Trust Them to Cover

Texas is 5-2 and 4-1 at home. The Longhorns beat Ole Miss 34-27 on Saturday, and that was a good win. No question about it. Ole Miss came in ranked seventh, and Texas played a terrific first half. But then the Longhorns let the Rebels back into the game. They were up 21 at halftime and ended up winning by seven. That's been my problem with Texas this season. The Longhorns have enough talent to beat just about anybody, but they don't always finish games the way they should. They've covered the spread only twice in seven tries. That's not something I'd ignore when they're laying 20.5.

The defense is the reason Texas should control this matchup. The Longhorns allow only 107 rushing yards and 178 passing yards per game. Mississippi State has struggled to score lately, and the quarterback situation makes things even worse. Texas should be able to get pressure and force the Bulldogs into some difficult third downs. But the Longhorns' offense is averaging 30.7 points and 370 yards per game. That's not bad, but it isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard every week. They scored 24 against Oklahoma, 24 against Florida and 20 against Tennessee. If Texas puts up 30 or 31 on Saturday, Mississippi State only needs 10 or 11 points to stay inside the number.

Arch Manning has thrown for 1,510 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He's had his moments, but he hasn't been the kind of quarterback I'd trust to throw for 350 yards every Saturday. Raleek Brown has 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and Ryan Wingo has caught 33 passes for 456 yards and four scores. Those are good weapons, especially against a Mississippi State secondary giving up more than 267 passing yards a game. But Texas just lost left tackle Trevor Goosby for the season. He hadn't allowed a sack in 223 pass-blocking snaps, and that's a big loss for an offensive line that's been protecting Manning. Cam Coleman also hurt his shoulder against Ole Miss, so his status needs watching. Texas has enough talent to overcome those injuries. I'm just not convinced the Longhorns are going to make this look easy.

Mississippi State vs Texas Picks and Predictions

Mississippi State Bulldogs +20.5

Give me Mississippi State and the 20.5 points. I don't expect the Bulldogs to win, and I wouldn't be surprised if Texas gets ahead by two touchdowns before halftime. But there's a big difference between winning comfortably and winning by 21. Texas has been letting teams hang around all season, and its offense hasn't been consistent enough for me to trust at this spread. Mississippi State has a running back who just went for 111 yards against Oklahoma, and Bothwell could help the Bulldogs keep the clock moving. That's important. The less time Texas has the football, the fewer chances it gets to turn this into a blowout. Now, if Puckett starts and throws a couple of interceptions, we could be in trouble. I know that. But Texas is 2-5 against the spread, and I'm not laying three touchdowns with a team that's been struggling to cover much smaller numbers. I'll take the Bulldogs.

Under 50.5

I like Under 50.5 here, and it might be the better of the two bets. Mississippi State has scored only 38 points in its last three games. The Bulldogs were shut out by LSU, managed 15 against Oklahoma, and now have to face a Texas defense allowing fewer than 20 points per game. If Taylor can't play, I expect Mississippi State to run Bothwell as much as possible and try to keep the game from getting away. Texas doesn't need to throw the ball all over the field to win, either. The Longhorns should be able to control things with their defense and running game, especially with Goosby out and Coleman dealing with a shoulder injury. The one thing that worries me is turnovers. A couple of short fields could turn this into a 40-point Texas afternoon without the Longhorns doing much offensively. But if Mississippi State protects the football, I see something closer to 30-13. Texas wins, the Bulldogs cover, and the under gets there.

Final Picks: Mississippi State Bulldogs +20.5 and Under 50.5