Missouri State at New Mexico State Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 22, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 10/19/2025, 08:16 PM ET

The Missouri State Bears visit the New Mexico State Aggies on Wednesday at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, with the opening kickoff at 9:00 PM ET on CBSSN. Missouri State is 3–3 and 1–1 in Conference USA after a 22–20 win at Middle Tennessee. New Mexico State is 3–3 and 1–2 in conference play after a 30–27 road loss at Liberty. Score with a long pass by using our free college football picks.

Missouri State Preview

Missouri State has won three of its last five with steady production through the air. Quarterback Jacob Clark is 88-for-135 for 1,195 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Clark is completing 65% and averages 8.9 yards per attempt. Dash Luke leads the receivers with 335 yards and two touchdowns, and Tristian Gardner has 241 yards and two scores. The run game complements the passing game behind Shomari Lawrence, who has 349 yards at 4.5 yards per carry.

Plays resulting in losses have been an issue. The Bears have allowed 23 sacks for 129 lost yards. On defense, the Bears have nine sacks, led by Mitchell Toney with two. Safety Maguire Neal tops the defense with 34 tackles. Davon Townley Jr. has the team’s lone interception. Missouri State must protect Clark, avoid third-and-long, and make bigger gains on early downs to help extend drives.

New Mexico State Preview

New Mexico State returns home after two road games and continues to show progress on offense. Quarterback Logan Fife is 118-for-209 for 1,514 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Fife is completing 57% of his passes and averages 7.2 yards per attempt. Donovan Faupel leads with 363 receiving yards and two touchdowns, while PJ Johnson III has 215 yards and three scores. The ground game has struggled, producing 399 yards on 174 carries for 2.3 yards per rush.

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The defense has been the strength of the Aggies. Defensive lineman Ezra Christensen leads with five sacks, and safety Naeten Mitchell has 50 tackles and one interception with a 71-yard return. Linebackers Tory Gethers and Tyler Martinez have combined for three sacks and two forced fumbles. The Aggies must keep pressure on Clark, make big gains on first down, and convert drives into touchdowns.

Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction

Missouri State’s passing game moves the ball, but protection remains its weakness. New Mexico State’s defense has the advantage at home and will create turnovers by the Bears to stall drives. The Aggies will close strong behind both their pass rush and the passing game of Fife. Final Score Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies win and cover ATS 27-23.