Notre Dame vs Navy Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 08:07 PM ET

Notre Dame is favored by almost 30 points, and I know what somebody at the other end of the bar is going to say. The Irish are bigger, faster, and better at just about everything. Fine. I agree. But Navy doesn’t play football the way most teams do, and that’s why laying four touchdowns against the Midshipmen always makes me a little nervous. They want to hold the ball, run it straight at you, and turn an entire quarter into two possessions. Notre Dame can win comfortably without making anybody who laid 29 points particularly happy. The college football season is in full swing so you should make sure you are ready for all the games with our free college football picks.

The Fighting Irish meet Navy at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET, with Navy designated as the home team at this neutral-site venue. The early market has Notre Dame favored by roughly 28.5 to 30.5 points, with a total of 52.5 to 53.5. Gillette Stadium is open-air, and the early forecast calls for temperatures around 60 degrees, winds near 5 mph with gusts around 11, and very little chance of rain. Nothing there should interfere with either offense.

Notre Dame Has Been Taking Care of Business

Notre Dame is 6-1 overall after having the weekend off. The Fighting Irish lost 28-24 at BYU earlier this month, but they’ve otherwise been impressive. They beat Stanford 58-7, North Carolina 37-26, Purdue 49-10, and Michigan State 27-10. That’s a pretty good collection of results, especially when you consider how consistently they’ve been scoring. Notre Dame is 2-1 in true road games, and this neutral-site matchup shouldn’t be nearly as intimidating as playing in Provo.

The Irish are averaging 41.1 points and 445.1 yards per game. That’s a serious offense. They’re throwing for 261.7 yards and rushing for 183.4, which means opponents can’t simply load up against one part of the attack. Navy’s defense has been allowing around 346.5 yards per game, including nearly 248 through the air. That’s where Notre Dame should find plenty of opportunities. The Midshipmen can be disciplined against the run, but they haven’t been nearly as effective stopping the pass. If the Irish protect the quarterback, they should be able to create explosive plays.

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The bigger advantage is on defense. Notre Dame is allowing only 13.4 points and 235 yards per game, with opponents gaining just 67.3 rushing yards. That last number is the one Navy should be worried about. The Midshipmen live on the ground, and Notre Dame has been one of the best run-stopping teams in the country. The Irish also have a plus-two turnover margin per game, while Navy has been on the wrong side of that category. If Notre Dame forces the Midshipmen into obvious passing situations, this could get ugly in a hurry.

Navy Needs to Keep the Clock Moving

Navy is 2-5 after a difficult opening stretch. The Midshipmen have lost to Air Force, UAB, Florida Atlantic, and UTSA, and their defense hasn’t been particularly reliable. They did beat Tulsa 34-26, which showed what happens when the running game gets going. But Navy has been struggling to finish games, and now it faces one of the most talented teams on its schedule. The Midshipmen are designated as the home team Saturday, but Foxborough isn’t Annapolis, and I wouldn’t give them a conventional home-field advantage.

Navy is averaging 298.5 rushing yards per game, one of the best marks in the country. That’s not a surprise. The Midshipmen want to control possession and force opponents to defend the option for four quarters. They’re throwing for only 115.5 yards per contest, so there’s not much mystery about the game plan. The problem is Notre Dame’s run defense. The Irish allow fewer than 70 rushing yards per game, and that’s an enormous mismatch on paper. Navy doesn’t need to rush for 300 to stay competitive, but it probably needs at least 180 or 200 to keep the clock moving.

Defensively, Navy has been decent against the run, allowing 98.8 yards per game. That should help against Notre Dame’s ground attack. The trouble is the secondary. The Midshipmen are giving up nearly 248 passing yards, and the Irish have been throwing effectively all season. Navy also allows opponents to convert more than 44% of their third downs. That’s a bad combination against a team averaging more than 40 points. The Midshipmen need turnovers, long possessions, and probably a few Notre Dame mistakes to make this interesting.

Notre Dame vs Navy Picks and Predictions

Navy +30.5

I’ll take Navy if the Midshipmen are getting 30.5 points. Notre Dame should win this game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Irish dominate from the opening kickoff. But Navy’s offense is designed to shorten games, and that matters when you’re getting more than four touchdowns. The concern is Notre Dame’s outstanding run defense. If the Irish shut down the option completely, Navy could spend the afternoon punting and watching Notre Dame score. Still, I think the Midshipmen can put together enough long possessions to keep the margin manageable. Notre Dame by 24 or 27 feels more reasonable than a five-touchdown blowout.

Under 53.5

I’m going Under 53.5. Navy wants to run the football, and Notre Dame has the defensive personnel to make those drives difficult. That combination should reduce possessions, which is exactly what an under bettor wants. The Irish could score 40 on their own, and that’s the obvious danger. But Navy isn’t built to play catch-up football, and I don’t expect the Midshipmen to contribute 20 or 25 points against this defense. Something around 38-10 Notre Dame makes sense. That’s a comfortable Irish victory without threatening the total.

Final Picks: Navy +30.5 and Under 53.5