Purdue vs Penn State Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 10/26/2026, 08:07 PM ET

I'm having a hard time figuring out why Penn State deserves to be laying more than a touchdown here. Have you watched the Nittany Lions lately? They haven't won a Big Ten game. Not one. Purdue isn't anything special, I'll give you that, but the Boilermakers went into Illinois and won, then turned around and beat Minnesota by 28. Penn State just keeps losing close games and talking about getting things fixed. At some point, you've got to actually win one before I'm going to trust you to cover a decent-sized spread. The college football season is in full swing so you should make sure you are ready for all the games with our free college football picks.

Purdue heads to Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is at 4:15 PM ET on Big Ten Network. Penn State is favored by around 7.5 points, and the total is sitting near 53.5 at some sportsbooks. Both teams had last weekend off. The early weather forecast calls for a partly cloudy afternoon, with temperatures possibly reaching the 60s and light winds around 5-10 mph. Nothing there looks especially troublesome for either offense, but the forecast needs another check closer to Saturday.

Purdue Boilermakers Have Enough Offense to Stay in This Game

Purdue is 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. That's already an improvement over what we've been watching from this program the last couple of years. The Boilermakers beat Illinois 24-17 on the road and followed that with a 41-13 win over Minnesota. Then Washington came into West Lafayette and beat them 38-26 on October 16. That was a disappointing one because Purdue had a chance to make things interesting and couldn't get enough stops. Still, two conference wins are two more than Penn State has managed. I wouldn't ignore that just because the game is being played in Happy Valley.

Purdue is averaging 31.3 points and 409 yards per game. The Boilermakers throw for better than 280 yards a night, and that's the part of their offense Penn State has to worry about. The Nittany Lions have a good secondary, but they haven't been getting much pressure on quarterbacks. Penn State has only nine sacks in seven games. Purdue has allowed 16, so there's an opportunity there if the Lions can finally get their pass rush going. The other side of the ball is where Purdue makes me nervous. The Boilermakers allow 32.3 points and 413 yards a game. That's a lot of yards to give up, especially against a team that's been desperate to get its offense going.

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Ryan Browne has thrown for 1,822 yards with ten touchdowns and three interceptions. He wasn't very good against Washington, completing 21 of 41 passes for 273 yards and throwing two picks. But he's also completed 65.5% of his passes for the season, so I wouldn't judge him on one bad afternoon. Asaad Waseem has 38 catches for 588 yards, and he went for 116 yards against Washington. Fame Ijeboi has 568 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, although Washington held him to 19 yards on 13 carries. Purdue needs more from him Saturday. Tight end Kylan Fox is out with a knee injury, and cornerback Hudauri Hines is another name to watch after getting hurt against Washington. That secondary can't afford to lose much more help.

Penn State Nittany Lions Need to Prove They Can Finish a Game

Penn State is 3-4 overall and 0-4 in conference play. Four straight losses. The Nittany Lions haven't won since beating Buffalo on September 19. They lost to Wisconsin by four, Northwestern by 21, USC by eight and Michigan by three. That Michigan game was frustrating because Penn State had chances to win it. The Lions lost 21-18, and now they're sitting at home trying to figure out how a season that started with three wins turned into this. Matt Campbell has had an extra week to work on things. Maybe that helps. But I need to see it before I'm willing to lay points with this team.

The Penn State defense is still pretty good. The Nittany Lions allow 18.9 points and 313.6 yards per game. Opponents are throwing for only 141 yards a night, which ranks among the best in the country. That's going to make things difficult for Browne if Purdue can't run the ball. But Penn State is allowing 172 rushing yards per game, so Ijeboi might have a chance to get something going. The bigger issue for me is the offense. Penn State averages 28.7 points and 384 yards a game, but it has scored only 74 points in four Big Ten games. That's 18.5 per contest. You can have a good defense and still struggle to cover a touchdown if you're not scoring enough yourself.

Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,664 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He threw for 267 yards against Michigan, but he also had two interceptions. That's been part of the problem. Penn State needs him to take better care of the ball. Chase Sowell has 510 receiving yards and three touchdowns, including 151 yards against Michigan. Carson Hansen leads the running backs with 278 yards and four touchdowns. The Lions could also get a boost if Koby Howard returns. He had 344 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the first three games before getting hurt, and Campbell has said his status is worth watching this week. Penn State needs somebody who can make a big play without asking Becht to put together a 12-play drive every time.

Purdue vs Penn State Picks and Predictions

Purdue Boilermakers +9.5

I'll take Purdue +9.5 if that original number is available, and I still lean toward the Boilermakers at +7.5. Penn State might be the better team, but I don't think it's playing well enough to be trusted with a spread this big. The Nittany Lions have scored 18.5 points per game in conference play. That's not going to cover many touchdowns unless the defense completely shuts somebody down. Purdue can throw the ball, and Penn State's pass rush hasn't been doing much to help its secondary. Browne has enough experience to move the offense, and Ijeboi could find some room against a defense giving up 172 rushing yards per game. Now, Purdue's defense is terrible. I'll admit that. If Becht gets hot and Penn State starts scoring, this could turn ugly. But the Lions have been trying to get their offense going for a month, and I don't see why I'm supposed to assume Saturday is suddenly the day everything clicks. Give me Purdue and the points.

Over 52.5

I like Over 52.5 at our original number, and I'd still consider 53.5. Purdue has gone over the total in six of its seven games. There's a reason for that. The Boilermakers can score, but they also give up more than 32 points a game. Penn State hasn't been doing much offensively lately, but this is probably the softest defense the Nittany Lions have seen in conference play. Purdue allows 251.6 passing yards per game, and Becht should have chances to find Sowell downfield. On the other side, Browne is averaging better than 260 passing yards a game, and Penn State's pass rush hasn't been getting home often enough. The danger is Penn State's secondary taking away Purdue's passing game and turning this into a bunch of punts. That's possible. But I think both teams can get into the mid-to-upper 20s. Something like Penn State 30-27 would make sense. The Lions finally win a conference game, Purdue covers, and the over gets there.

Final Picks: Purdue Boilermakers +9.5