Texas State vs Arkansas State Pick and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025

By: Ricky Mackenzie Updated 10/03/2025, 10:59 PM ET

TJ Finley and the Texas State Bobcats head to Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State in a Sun Belt matchup between two programs heading in different directions. Looking for today’s college football picks? Don’t miss our expert breakdowns.Texas State comes in at 3-1 after a 35-3 win over Nicholls State. The Bobcats have been sharp on both sides of the ball, with Finley directing an offense that thrives on balance and tempo while their defense limits opponents to under 20 points per game.

Arkansas State Preview

Arkansas State, at 1-4, has been trending downward with four consecutive losses, including a 28-16 defeat to Louisiana-Monroe. Quarterback Jaxon Dailey has struggled to generate explosive plays, and the running game hasn’t been able to sustain drives. Defensively, the Red Wolves have given up big plays consistently, allowing over 30 points in three of five outings.

Texas State Preview

Texas State’s running back Ismail Mahdi has been a difference-maker, averaging strong yardage on the ground and helping the offense control clock. The Bobcats have shown an ability to start fast, and that will be crucial again on the road. Arkansas State’s front seven will have to step up early to avoid another long night.

Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction

The key to this matchup will be turnovers and field position. Texas State’s discipline has given them a major edge this season, and their offensive line’s consistency has kept pressure off Finley. Arkansas State must play mistake-free football and find a rhythm early to have any chance of keeping up with a well-rounded opponent.

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Texas State’s balance on offense and improved defense should be enough to outlast a struggling Arkansas State team. The Red Wolves may hang close early at home, but the Bobcats’ depth and composure will take over as the game wears on. Take the Bobcats to win this one and to cover the spread. Final Score Prediction, Texas State wins 38-17.